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双语:英国首相递交辞呈,保守党领导人选战打响


Over the weekend we saw the results of the long-awaited European elections and as expected pro- European parties fared well meaning for the majority of Europe the path of rule will not deviate leaving things very much as they were. There was a slight shift towards Liberal and pro-green parties but on the whole, the voting consensus was broadly consistent with expectations leaving the Euro broadly unchanged in value during what could have been an illiquid session on Monday due to bank holidays.

上周末,我们看到了期待已久的欧洲议会选举的结果,正如人们所预期的那样,亲欧盟政党表现良好,对欧洲大多数国家来说,其执政道路不会偏离现状。投票结果有轻微转向自由派和亲绿色党派的趋势,但总体而言,投票结果与市场预期基本一致,即欧元汇率基本保持不变。


There were 3 significant regional deviations in votes that will spark further action in Italy, Greece and the UK. In Italy, a strong showing from Matteo Salvini's party could push them to end their coalition with the Five Star party and form an alliance with Berlusconi's Forza Italy party (An anti-EU party) alternatively they could use the populism to push for an earlier general election.  In Greece Alexis Tsipras the Prime Minister saw his Syriza party defeated as the pro-European New Democracy Party emerged as the victor. This makes a general election in June or July increasingly likely.

意大利、希腊和英国这三个地区的投票结果(和其他国家)有明显的偏差,这将会造成后续的影响。在意大利,马特奥•萨尔维尼领导的政党表现强劲,这可能会促使他们结束与五星党的联盟,并与贝卢斯科尼领导的反欧盟政党意大利力量党结盟。此外,他们还可能利用民粹主义推动提前举行大选。在希腊,总理亚历克西斯•齐普拉斯眼看着他的激进左翼联盟被击败,亲欧洲的新民主党成为胜利者。这使得6月或7月举行大选的可能性越来越大。

 

Finally, in the UK whilst a shift in voting pattern was expected as both the main parties the Leading Conservative Party and opposition Labour party have increasingly struggled to impress the public over their handling of Brexit the degree of the shift of vote brought further pressure on both, as Nigel Farage's pro Brexit party fared well collecting nearly 35% of the vote.  As was consistent with the rest of Europe the Liberal and pro-green parties fared well. What was notable is that despite the emergence of Farage's pro-Brexit parties, as a collective party with anti-Brexit stances gained a slightly higher majority at 40.4% of the votes.  The Conservative parties seats fell to just 9.1% and Labour took just 14.1%.

最后,在英国,选举情况的转变和预期相符。执政的保守党和反对派工党越来越难以让公众相信其会妥善处理好脱欧问题的能力,而投票的转变程度给两党都带来进一步的压力,因为奈杰尔. 法拉奇领导的脱欧党表现良好,收到近35%的选票。与欧洲其他国家的情况一样,自由党和绿党表现良好。值得注意的是,尽管有法拉奇的脱欧党横空出世但是跨政党的留欧派总和却占了40.4%的略多数席位。保守党的席位跌至9.1%,工党也仅占14.1%。

 

Last week finally saw the UK Prime Minister tender her resignation sparking a Leadership challenge within the Conservative party. Her tenure will not be fondly remembered in UK history as she led the party through the unsuccessful Brexit negotiations and seen her parties populism fall both internally and externally and the countries global stature slip as the endured unsuccessful negotiations with the EU whilst always appearing underprepared and underskilled to achieve what the country had originally voted for. With the October deadline looming for the finalization of a Brexit deal there will now be a short Leadership contest with 8 Conservative MP’s putting themselves in the frame. The front runner is Boris Johnson who immediately announced his intention to run, sparking concerns from the market as he declared we will leave in October with or without a deal.

上周,英国首相终于递交了辞呈,这在保守党内部引发了一场关于领导权的争夺。英国历史不会记住她的任期,因为她所带领的保守党在脱欧谈判上的失利以及保守党的支持度无论对内对外都在下跌。此外,英国全球地位下滑,与欧盟谈判经历多次失败而且每次谈判总是显得准备不足。以上种种都表现出其执政能力有愧于国家最初的投票支持。随着10月份英国脱欧协议最终敲定期限临近,现在将会有一场迅速的领导权争夺战,已有8名保守党议员将自己纳入角逐中。领先的是鲍里斯•约翰逊,他在首相宣布辞职后立即宣布了参选意向,这引发了市场的担忧,因为他宣布,无论是否达成协议,英国都将在10月份离开欧盟。

 

The last few weeks have brought the Pound under significant pressure as it completed nearly 2 weeks of consecutive depreciation versus the US Dollar. Whilst the US has enjoyed strength in that time it is without question that the rise of hard-line No-deal populism is of course a concern, as well as the concern over finding a Prime Minister who is capable of negotiating a strong deal for the UK’s departure, a situation highlighted in the fact Dominic Raab is running for PM, having resigned from his post of Chief Brexit negotiator to the EU under Theresa May as he felt he couldn’t get anywhere. The EU elections also highlighted an issue that Westminster has been “parking” as in Scotland, the Scottish Nationalist Party won in all but one region, as Scot’s showed defiance to Parliament, and cements validity for a second independence referendum, potentially further diminishing the UK’s collective strength.

过去几周,英镑承受着巨大的压力,英镑兑美元已连续贬值近两周。尽管美元在这段时间是强势的,但毫无疑问,强硬的“无协议”民粹主义的崛起令人担忧。此外,另一个担忧来自是否可以找到一个能够强有力的与欧盟就脱欧问题进行谈判的首相。多米尼克也加入首相的角逐,此前在特蕾莎·梅领导的时候,他辞去了英国脱欧首席谈判代表的职位,因为他觉得首相的脱欧方案不会成功。

欧盟议会选举还突显出一个问题,即政府一直在搁置苏格兰问题。苏格兰民族党在苏格兰赢得了除了一个地区以外的所有胜利。苏格兰人的胜利显示出对英国议会的蔑视,并巩固了第二次独立公投的合法性,这可能会进一步削弱英国的作为一个整体的实力。

 

Over the weekend US President Donald Trump was in Japan where he was discussing a trade deal between the countries. In his signature Twitter updates he alluded to the fact that the talks went well between the nations. As tensions between the US and China grow and stocks retreat and flight to comfort investment surges, it appears Trump is intent on prioritising other international trade deals (Firstly Canada and now Japan) ahead of China, however without question this deal remains the largest and most important. How both economies are progressing as the deal hits this stumbling bloc will be telling, so Thursdays release of US GDP and Friday brings Chinese Manufacturing Data which will both play a significant role in market direction.

上周末,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普抵达日本,商讨两国之间的贸易协议。在他更新的推特中,他提到了两国之间的谈判非常顺利。 随着中美关系紧张局势的加剧,股市的回落以及需要安抚投资者情绪。 特朗普似乎故意将其他国际贸易谈判(首先是加拿大,然后是现在的日本)优先于中国,但毫无疑问,与中国的贸易协议仍然是最大最重要的。中美两国的经济表现也成为贸易谈判的关键;因此下周四即将公布的美国GDP和下周五的中国制造业数据将在全球市场发挥导向作用。

 

The week ahead

下周展望

 

Monday -Bank Holidays in the UK and US

周一 - 美国与英国的银行休假日

 

Tuesday - German Gfk consumer climate in the morning as well as the Bank of Englands  Mark Carney speaking at the UK Inflation hearing. In the afternoon US consumer confidence.

周二 -上午有德国Gfk消费者景气指数的公布以及马克·卡尼在英格兰银行关于英国通货膨胀听证会上发表的讲话;下午美国消费者信心指数将被公布。

 

Wednesday - ANZ Business confidence from Australia and New Zealands Governer Orr speaks at the start of the session.  Up next is French CPI and GDP before German Unemployment.  In the afternoon at 3pm the Bank of Canada interest rate descision, where forecasts show expectation of rates remaining at 1.75%.

周三 - ANZ银行举行商业信心论坛。接下来会有法国消费者物价指数(CPI)与国内生产总值(GDP)及德国的失业率数据。在下午三点,加拿大央行会公布他们的利率决策,外界预测利率将保持在1.75%。

 

Thursday - We receive Australian Private Capital Expenditure  and New Zealand's Annual Budget release. In the afternoon session US GDP will dominate the markets alongside Wholesale inventories.

周四 - 我们将看到澳大利亚私人资本支出和新西兰年度预算发布。 在下午,美国将公布GDP与批发库存量,主导市场走向。

 

Friday - First up we have Chinese Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI Data. In the European morning we have UK Mortgage Approvals and net-lending data. In the US session we get Canadian GDP, as well as US Personal Spending and Personal Income and Chicago PMI’s.

周五 -首先,我们会看到中国制造业和非制造业采购经理指数(PMI)。在欧洲的早晨,英国抵押贷款和净贷款数据将被公布。在美国方面,我们将获得加拿大GDP、美国个人消费和个人收入以及芝加哥采购经理指数。 


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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