首页 / 新闻资讯 / 双语:是否有望协议“脱欧”仍不明朗,不乐观的前景令本周英镑承压

双语:是否有望协议“脱欧”仍不明朗,不乐观的前景令本周英镑承压


In the UK as the 2 remaining Conservative party candidates intensified their campaigns for Prime Minister there was little in the way of significant developments. Boris Johnson remains clearly in pole position for the top spot with Jeremy Hunt trailing in the polls to Boris’s near 75% majority.

在英国,由于剩下的两名保守党候选人都加大了他们的首相的竞选活动,因此事态并没有重大进展。 鲍里斯·约翰逊显然领先于杰里米·亨特,在民意调查中鲍里斯得到近75%的票数。

 

Recent polls from across the globe outline polls cannot always be wholly reliable but when tipped so far in a candidates favor at this time Boris seems firmly in the driving seat as Conservative party members start to vote this week.

全球各地的民意调查并不总是完全可靠,但到目前为止总体形势有利于鲍里斯,保守党成员本周也将开始投票。

 

Last week saw UK monetary policy in the spotlight. The UK Monetary Policy Committee led by Mark Carney whose hands have been firmly tied by the Brexit impasse leaving him to touch monetary policy until a resolution had been sought.

上周英国货币政策成为焦点。马克·卡尼领导的英国货币政策委员会的政策一直受到英国“脱欧”僵局的束缚,使他试图通过货币政策寻求解决方案。

 

Until his public statement last week, he had always signaled that if we see a “positive” (no hard Brexit) the UK would be hiking rates such was the developing strength of the UK economy, with a no deal Brexit almost certainly bringing an immediate rate cut to stem the flow and support the UK economy.

在他上周发表公开声明之前,他总是暗示,如果我们看到一个“积极的”(非“无协议脱欧”),英国央行将会加息,这就是英国经济的发展实力,而英国“无协议脱欧”肯定会带来立即的降息来支持英国经济。

 

In a sharp turnaround, at a public address last week Carney finally considered the pressures of global trade tensions, signaling he would be in no hurry to hike rates, bringing a softer, more dovish tone to the Bank of England’s rate outlook.

情况急转,在上周的一个公开演讲中,卡尼终于考虑了全球贸易紧张局势的压力,表明他不会急于加息,为英格兰银行的利率前景带来一个更温和、更鸽派的基调。

 

This less optimistic outlook and softer PMI data brought the pound under pressure on the week with the EUR/GBP rate touching 0.9000 and GBP/USD breaking the 1.2500 level and 10-year Gilts yield falling to 0.68%.  Key GDP data out of the UK will really show the health of a Brexit entrenched UK economy.

不太乐观的前景和疲软的PMI数值使本周英镑承压,欧元/英镑汇率触及0.9000,英镑/美元突破1.2500水平,10年期英国国债收益率跌至0.68%。 英国的主要GDP数据将真实显示英国脱欧期间经济的健康状况。

 

In the US, President Donald Trump again devoted time to criticizing the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee head Jerome Powell. Trump believes the Fed were too fast to hike interest rates thus damaging the competitiveness of the US Dollar. It is incredibly unusual to see a national leader condemn the actions of a Monetary Policy Committee in this way, but in typically Trump fashion, it appears he is attempting to coerce the Fed into corrective cuts in the coming months and in order to tip the balance in favor of his desires he has just recruited two new voters onto the 12 member board, naturally he ensured they are like minded with himself on rates with Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller both know for their dovish stance on rates.

Looking at the rate curves and polls, the market had been pricing in an interest rate cut from the Fed in July granting Trumps wishes, but last weeks delivery of key employment data should strong resilience in that sector with the headline Non-farm Payroll data beating market expectations of 168,000 new jobs created to come in at 224,000.  The significant fall of last months data to 75,000 acted as a significant indicator that the Fed would have to cut sooner rather than later, now with a perhaps corrective number this month it could well offer an argument for holding off watching the data and awaiting the September meeting before acting, in spite of the presidential pressure that is building. We should get a strong idea of the Fed’s thoughts this week with the Minutes of last months meeting on Wednesday night and an testimonies from Powell on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

美国方面,特朗普总统再次批评美联储公开市场委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。特朗普认为美联储加息太快,因而损害了美元的竞争力。国家领导人这样谴责货币政策委员极其罕见,甚至难以置信,但是以特朗普惯常方式,看似他在迫使美联储在接下来几个月内进行纠正性降息。而且,为了扭转局势来利好自己的愿望,特朗普最近在12个成员的委员会中加入了两名新投票人朱迪·谢尔顿、克里斯托弗·瓦勒,自然而然地,这两位新投票人和他在利率上看法一致,因为他们都以鸽派观点而闻名。看到利率曲线和民意调查结果,市场已经考虑到了七月美联储尊重特朗普愿望的降息举动,但上几周重要就业数据发布,头条称“非农就业数据超出市场预期,与预期168000相比,实际新增224000份工作”。这些数据为降息举动在特朗普压力面前提供了强弹性。上几个月非农就业数据大幅降低至75000,形成了美联储不得不迟早降息的重要迹象,但这个月可能是纠正性的数据可能又提供了暂缓降息的论据,虽然总统压力持续,但需要再观察数据,等待九月的会议再行动。我们应从这周三晚发布的上周会议纪要来了解美联储的想法,并在周二、周三和周四从鲍威尔口中得到证实。

 

In the Eurozone, this week saw the announcement of a new Head of the ECB (European Central Bank), Christine Lagarde the Head of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) will take over from the outgoing Mario Draghi. She will be stepping into a hot seat with Europe suffering from global trade tensions as manufacturing across the collective state struggles and key economic strength signals are under pressure. There is no question monetary policy action is required in Europe but with interest rates at historic lows the scope of capabilities is lower. Lagarde has always been positive on the impacts of Quantitative Easing therefore that seems her likely first action point in the new role will be the implementation of a new wave of QE, before she looks at the potential of further rate cuts.  She will also have to address the situation in Greece where over the weekend, as expected a new parliament was formed, with the New Democracy party securing a majority result, but the internal economic issues remain and this new government will be tested in the coming months. In Turkey, the government took the unusual step of sacking the head of the Monetary Policy Committee sending the Turkish Lira tumbling at the opening this morning and with the global markets fearful of Turkish exposure the tone was set to the downside throughout the Asian and early European session.

欧元区,这周将会宣布克里斯蒂·拉加德(目前国际货币组织主席)接替即将离任的马里奥·德拉吉,担任欧洲央行主席。她接到的是一块烫手山芋,因为欧洲一直在承受国际贸易压力,整个地区的生产业举步维艰,重要经济指标不堪重负。毫无疑问,欧洲需要货币政策行动,但利率已经在历史低点,调整区间也相应较小、拉加德对于量化宽松的作用一直持积极态度,因此她继任后,在考虑进一步降息的可能性之前,她最可能的第一步行动会是实行新一轮的量化宽松她也将需要评估希腊的情况。上周末希腊如众所愿成立了新的议会,新民主党占大多数席位,但内部经济问题仍然持续,新政府将在接下来几个月承受挑战。在土耳其,政府采取了不寻常的手段-免除了货币政策委员会主席职务,使得土耳其里拉在今早开市就遭受暴跌。国际市场对于持有土耳其资产的恐惧拖累了亚洲和欧洲早盘。

 

The Week Ahead

本周展望

 

Monday - Slightly more optimistic data out of Germany and the Eurozone first thing with German Industrial Production bouncing back from a terrible number last month and a strong German Trade Balance. No data comes in the US session.

周一,德国和欧元区的数据略显乐观,德国工业生产指数首先从上个月的较低数值中复苏,德国贸易平衡数据也较为强劲。 美国方面没有数据公布。

 

Tuesday - The key event of the day will be Jerome Powell's speech at 1.45 UK time. Later in the afternoon we also hear from Bullard and Quarles from the Fed board.

周二,这天的关键事件为杰罗姆·鲍威尔在英国时间1:45发表讲话。 下午晚些时候,我们还会听到美联储董事会的Bullard和Quarles的消息。

 

Wednesday - UK GDP comes at 9.30 with expectation being we see a bounce back from -0.4% last month to 0.3%. Manufacturing Production data delivered at the same time will be just as important, its forecast that we again see an improvement to 2.2% from -3.9% last month. In the US session first up is the interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada who are expected to leave rates at 1.75%.  Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes at 7pm, we again hear from Jerome Powell as he testifies at 3pm.

周三, 英国国内生产总值达到9.30,我们预计会从上月的-0.4%反弹至0.3%。 制造业同时交付的生产数据同样重要,我们预计会从上个月的-3.9%上升到2.2%。 在美国交易时段,首先是加拿大央行的利率决定,预计将维持1.75%的利率。 在(伦敦时间)晚上7点公布美联储FOMC货币政策会议纪要之前我们会再次听到杰罗姆·鲍威尔在下午3点发表证词陈述。

 

Thursday - Eurozone CPI data in the morning, in the afternoon, we get the US CPI inflation data before a further Testimony from Jerome Powell. Following Powell we again hear from FED member Quarles.

周四, 早上将会看到欧元区的CPI数据,下午,我们在得到杰罗姆·鲍威尔的进一步证词之前获得美国CPI通胀数据。 在这之后我们将收到美联储成员夸尔斯的消息。

 

Friday - A very quiet end to the week starting with Trade Balance data from China. UK MPC member Vlieghe speaks at 9.30am. Eurozone Industrial Production comes at 10am before US PPI at 1.30pm

周五,从中国的贸易数据平衡开始,本周将不会有更多值得关注的事。 英国货币政策委员会成员Vlieghe将于上午9:30发表讲话。 欧元区工业生产值将在十点发布,紧接的是下午一点半发布的美国生产价格指数。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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