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全球市场下跌?病毒来袭,哪种资产将受影响?(双语)



In the space of a week, the focus of the markets has completely shifted. The concerns in the Middle East and global trade deal issues seem to have abated for now as the Coronavirus concerns eclipse the world economy. In the space of a week, we have gone from a handful of cases in China to 80 confirmed dead with 2700 infected predominantly in China. There are now also confirmed cases in France, Japan, USA, Canada, Singapore, Thailand and the UK.  In the early part of last week market concern seemed more isolated to the Yuan which started to fall, but as we came towards the end of the week real concerns were evident in the price action of the markets, further emphasised by the downwards trajectory evident at market open in Asia this am. 

在刚刚过去的一周里,市场焦点已经完全转移。在新型冠状病毒肆虐的阴影下,对中东和全球贸易问题的担忧暂时黯然失色。在一周的时间内,疫情从中国发现为数不多几例迅速飙升至2800多例感染,其中死亡81例。法国、日本、美国、加拿大、新加坡、泰国和英国也有了疑似病例。上周早些时候,市场担忧似乎仍然主要针对人民币贬值,但临近周末时,市场价格走势才体现出了真正的担忧,今天凌晨亚洲开盘时进一步的下跌趋势更加说明了这一点。


The flight to safe-haven assets is in full effect with Gold, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc being heavily bought. With some Chinese cities being on lockdown, there is also concern over the slowdown in productivity and consumption in the region and further slowdown caused should the virus spread across the globe. With this in mind, it is forecast air travel demand will be one of the first sectors hit by a slowing in demand, meaning Oil prices have taken a significant hit,  falling to nearly 20% to $52 per barrel. 

包括黄金、日元和瑞士法郎在内的避险资产被大量买入。航空旅行业预计将会是因需求放缓而受到冲击的首要行业之一,这意味着油价将可能受到重大冲击,跌幅近20%,达到每桶52美元。


With global stocks having enjoyed a huge rally into the end of 2019 and early 2020 all eyes have been on the earnings reporting seen over the last 2 weeks which have broadly been positive, however, concerns over Coronavirus have sent stocks significantly lower over the last few sessions with a fall over 1% expected at today’s open (based on futures pricing) is expected that they will remain vulnerable to any escalation of infection. With the evident  flight to safe-haven investment seen, US Treasury Bonds have been one of the most significant benefactors making multi-month highs. 

全球股市在经历了2019年底和2020年初的大幅反弹后,所有人的目光都集中在过去两周的收益报告上,这些报告总体上是积极的,然而,对冠状病毒的担忧使股市蒙上阴影,预期今天开盘时(基于期货价格)下跌超过1%,因为一旦目前的病毒感染事件继续升级,股市就很可能应声而跌。随着资金明显向避险投资转移,美国国库券已经成为最明显的受益对象之一,达到数月高位。


In the Eurozone last week brought Christine Lagarde, new Head of the European Central Banks second interest rate policy meeting. Having been slightly more dovish than the markets expected we saw the EUR/USD rate fall from 1.1120 to 1.1020. The week ahead brings the US Federal Reserve Interest rate-setting meeting, where its expected rates remain at 1.75% with all eyes on Jerome Powell’s committee for guidance on the rate path for the coming year. 

上周在欧元区,欧洲中央银行新任行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德召开了第二次利率政策会议。由于比市场预期的更加鸽派,我们看到欧元兑美元汇率从1.1120跌至1.1020。美国联邦储备委员会利率设定会议即将召开,其预期利率将维持在1.75%,所有人都期望从杰罗米·鲍威尔的委员会得知明年的利率走势指引。


In the UK, this is the week where PM Boris Johnson will effectively take the UK out of the EU. With that in mind, the actions of the UK Monetary Policy Committee will be in focus on Thursday when we hear from Mark Carney and his team, last weeks macroeconomic data was slightly more positive, following some terrible Retail Sales data the previous week. MPC members had hinted at rate cuts previously, so with Brexit progressing the market awaits a more structured and formal update. 

鲍里斯·约翰逊将在这周带领英国“脱欧”。考虑到这一点,英国货币政策委员会周四的行动将成为焦点,马克·卡尼及其团队将会发言。继上上周疲软的零售数据之后,上周的宏观经济数据相对较好,但英国货币政策委员会成员之前曾暗示过要降息,所以随着英国“脱欧”的推进,市场等待着更加结构化和正式的更新。


The Week Ahead 本周展望

周一 Monday

· Ifo商业环境–德国

Ifo Business Climate – Germany

· 房屋销售-美国

Home Sales - US


周二 Tuesday

· 耐用品订单–美国

Durable Goods Orders – US

· 里士满联储制造业指数-美国

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - US


周三 Wednesday

· 消费者信心–日本

Consumer Confidence – Japan

· GfK消费者信心–德国

GfK Consumer Confidence – Germany

· 公司贷款–欧洲央行

Loans to Company – ECB

· 美联储利率决定-美国

Fed Interest Rate Decision - US


周四 Thursday

· 失业率变化–德国

Unemployment Change – Germany

· 商业信心–欧洲央行

Business Confidence – ECB

· 英格兰银行利率决定-英国

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision – UK

· 美国国内生产总值

GDP - US


周五 Friday

· 消费者信心–英国

Consumer Confidence – UK

· 法国国内生产总值

GDP – France

· 国家统计局制造业指数–中国


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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