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金融市场仍看好中美贸易谈判,风险资产再度受宠


Last week’s movements were focused on the US/China trade negotiations, with the markets in the majority centring on positive sentiment from both sides.  In the early part and midweek, we were hearing positive sentiment from both sides with it seeming ‘phase one’ was all but signed and it is looking foreseeable that tariffs could be a thing of the past as we move into 2020. 

上周,中美贸易谈判继续引领了市场的运动轨迹,市场普遍持有乐观情绪。直到上周中,一直有消息称,双方已达成“第一阶段”协议,就只差签字了,并且关税可能会在2020年初被取消。

This brought positivity to ‘risk’ assets, with the stock markets buoyant and the US indices hitting new highs. The safe haven of gold collapsed, as flight to safety began to look unnecessary and the CNY (onshore Chinese Yuan) dropped back under 7.0000 against the US Dollar. The theme was also replicated in the bond markets as prices dropped bringing yields higher as the positivity played out.

这对风险资产来说是利好消息,股市大振;美国股指再创新高;包括黄金在内的避险资产则遭受震荡,因为此时已经没有必要再购入避险资产了;人民币兑美元汇率破7;在债券市场,债券价格下跌,使得收益率强势攀升。

As always with US President Donald Trump, in a series of tweets, concerns started to raise as he stated that China wanted a deal, but he hasn’t yet decided whether to give it to them, undermining officials of both sides as he sought to gain the dominant hold of the negotiations. Whilst this jitter in the discussions did spook the markets, they are becoming accustomed to this all to obvious power play from Trump, and the pullbacks at this stage remain relatively light, even the fact the final face to face negotiations may be delayed from November to December, as the nations seek to set a venue for the talks brought limited price action.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普则继续他以往的作风,在推特上发表了他对贸易谈判的看法。虽然他的话引发了市场的紧张情绪,并且由于两国仍在寻找合适的场所进行协商,最终的面对面协商可能将被推迟至12月,但由于市场已经对特朗普这种甚是明显的高压手段习以为常,所以由此带来的价格下降并不明显。

As the US economy continues to show resilient strength following on from the beat in US employment data two weeks ago, last weeks ISM and PMI data again beat expectation pressure remains on the President, as things seem to be intensifying in the ongoing impeachment trial. 

暨两周前发布的不佳的就业数据后,美国经济持续回弹。上周ISM和PMI数据再一次超过预期,缓解了总统身上的压力。随着弹劾审判的进展,他所面临的情况变得更加严峻。

As the President almost daily protests his innocence on Twitter for what he’s calling ‘a witch hunt’ concern grows that the evidence against him could well be damning and lead to the end of his tenure.

特朗普几乎每天都在推特上发文证明他的“清白”,声称他是在被“政治迫害”。外界担心,这些针对他的不利证据很可能是确凿的,并会让他与他的总统任期说再见。

In the UK, as the election campaign begins in earnest, it was a bumpy start from the leading Conservative party with some disastrous public appearances and speeches from high ranking members of his team and Boris Johnson himself. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn is also coming under pressure as he publicly seems reluctant to deliver his Brexit stance. The latest polls still have the Conservatives in the lead as we head to the elections on the 12th December. 

我们再来看下英国。各党都开始了它们的竞选活动。保守党开局不利,鲍里斯·约翰逊与他的党派高层人员屡次在公共活动中发表“毁灭性”的不恰当言论,影响了党派的公众形象。工党党魁杰里米·科尔宾也面临着巨大压力。他似乎不愿意公开表达他的“脱欧”立场。随着12月12日的大选日期越来越近,最近的一次民意调查显示,保守党仍然领先。

With the Brexit volatility easing as the focus lies with the countries leadership it was back to monetary policy to move the markets at the Bank of England interest rate-setting committee on Thursday. Mark Carney’s MPC voted 7-2 to leave rates unmoved for this month, and whilst no change was expected, the fact that 2 members favoured a cut did shock the market and brought immediate heavy selling of the pound testing the 1.2800 level against the US Dollar.

“脱欧”的不确定性对市场的影响逐渐减弱,市场关注的重点落在了国家领导权终将花落谁家上。上周四,英格兰银行的利率决定改变了市场动向。尽管英国央行行长马克·卡尼领导的货币政策委员会投票表决的结果是维持利率不变,但9名成员中的2名投下了降息的一票,这让市场感到惊讶,使得英国短线跳水,在兑美元1.2800的水平试探。

In the week ahead we get GDP data out of the UK, Japan and Eurozone. On Wednesday US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addresses congress and on Thursday we get the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Again the dominating factor for markets this week will be trade negotiation progression and political posturing and polls for the UK election. 

这周,我们将获得来自英国、日本和欧元区的GDP数据。周三,美联储主席鲍威尔在国会发表讲话。周四,我们会得到新西兰联储的利率决定。本周最重要的事件仍然是贸易协商的进展和英国大选的民意调查。


The week ahead

本周展望


周一 Monday

· 日本机械订单

Machinery Orders – Japan 

· 中国汽车销售量

Vehicles Sales – China 

· 英国GDP初步增长率

GDP Growth Rate Preliminary – UK 

· 英国工业生产指数

Industrial Production – UK 

· 英国建造产出量

Construction Output – UK  

 

周二 Tuesday

· 英国就业变化

Employment Change – UK 

· 欧元区ZEW经济信心指数

ZEW Economic Sentiment – Eurozone 

· 德国ZEW经济信心指数

ZEW Economic Sentiment – Germany 

· 红皮书–美国

Redbook – US

 

周三 Wednesday

· 英国通货膨胀

Inflation Rate – UK 

· 英国工业生产者出厂价格指数

PPI – UK

· 英国零售价格指数

Retail Price Index – UK 

· 德国10年国债拍卖

10-yr Bund Auction – Germany 

· 美国通货膨胀

Inflation – US 

 

周四 Thursday

· 日本GDP增长率

GDP Growth Rate – Japan 

· 澳大利亚失业率

Unemployment Rate – Australia 

· 中国工业生产指数

Industrial Production – China 

· 中国零售销售额

Retail Sales – China

· 德国GDP增长率

GDP Growth Rate – Germany 

· 英国零售销售额

Retail Sales – UK 

· 欧元区GDP增长率

GDP Growth Rate – Eurozone 

· 美国持续和初次申请失业救济人数

Continuing & Initial Jobless Claims – US 

 

周五 Friday

· 中国房屋价格指数

House Price Index – China 

· 日本工业生产指数

Industrial Production – Japan 

· 欧元区通货膨胀

Inflation Rate – Eurozone 

· 美国零售销售额

Retail Sales – US 

· 美国制造业生产指数

Manufacturing Production – US 

· 美国产能利用率

Capacity Utilization – US 

· 纽约联储制造业指数

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index – US  


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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