首页 /  / 财报季来临!地缘风险情绪消散,美股再创新高

财报季来临!地缘风险情绪消散,美股再创新高


Last week saw positivity and optimism flood back into the global markets as major indices soared. It was the US indices that continue to lead the way with the S&P hitting 3300 and Dow Jones 29,350 as global risk faded. As the tensions in the Middle East faded into the background following the airstrikes in Iraq, safe-haven investment was ditched as fear of missing out investors clamoured to ride the surging wave of the stock markets. 

上周,乐观情绪再次涌入全球市场, 主要指数飙升。随着全球风险逐渐退去,美国指数继续领涨,标普500指数达到3300,道琼斯指数达到29350。伊拉克空袭带来的中东紧张局势逐渐淡化,避险资产失去青睐,不甘错失良机的投资者大举在股市飙升时买入。

Last Wednesday also brought the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China, a welcome sight to both nations that ensures no additional tariffs will be imposed as we move towards a Phase Two agreement. The ceremony which was delivered in typical Trump style, championing his personal and wider teams successes. It did fall short on detail of the second phase of negotiation timescale, but from his earlier comments, this could be seen after the US elections later this year. 

上周三,中美两国签署了第一阶段贸易协议。这对两国来说都是乐于见到的,意味着在进入第二阶段协商前,暂不会额外征收关税。协议签署仪式是浓浓的“特朗普风格”,大力赞颂总统和他的团队的成功。然而,仪式上却缺失了第二阶段谈判的日程细节,但据特朗普早些时候所说,第二阶段的谈判可能会在今年年底的美国大选结束之后开启。

We are in the midst of the US Earning season and another reason for the buoyancy of the stock markets is the solid numbers that have been seen to date with JP Morgan, Citibank, Morgan Stanley and BoAML all reporting strong numbers. In the week ahead we look to American Express, IBM, Intel and Netflix for their numbers, Netflix is expected to show the strains of heightened competition within their sector. 

如今正值美国营收季,迄今为止,摩根大通、花旗银行、摩根士丹利和美银美林均发布了表现强劲的报告,这也是股市活跃的另一个原因。在接下来的一周中,我们将继续关注美国运通、IBM、英特尔和网飞的营收情况,预计网飞的数据将会体现其所在行业竞争加剧的压力。

The US impeachment saga upon Donald Trump has entered its next phase with the Senate now expected to vote on whether to impeach the President. The markets remained unperturbed by the situation with the Republican majority in the Senate making it incredibly unlikely that a two-thirds majority will be met to impeach the President.  

对特朗普的弹劾大事件已进入下一阶段,美国参议院预计将会就是否弹劾总统一事进行投票。市场仍然未受此事影响。由于参议院中的共和党成员占多数,想要有三分之二的多数票数支持弹劾特朗普的可能性极低。

In the UK, following on from the warnings signals and forward guidance of willingness to act by two Bank of England monetary policy committee members at the tail end of last week should we see softening of data, we did then see a significant downturn in Retail Sales in the UK last Friday. After an unexplainably strong week for the pound taking it to highs of 1.3118 versus the Dollar, it closed the week at 1.3000 giving back all the gains. Eyes will firmly be on the employment data out of the UK on Tuesday with estimation for UK data turning pessimistic as the realities of Brexit start to pinch. 

在英国,两名英格兰银行货币政策委员会成员上周曾释放警告信号,如果看到疲软数据,将会为降息做准备,这一观点也在前瞻指引中得以体现。紧接着在上周五,我们的确看到英国零售额大幅下滑。英镑经历了无法解释的强劲的一周,英镑兑美元升至1.3118的高点,收于1.3000,回吐了所有涨幅。市场将牢牢地关注周二发布的英国就业数据,随着英国“脱欧”的影响开始加深,外界对英国数据的预期变得悲观。

There are three Central Bank interest rate meetings this week, first up is the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, followed by The Bank of Canada on Wednesday then finally the European Central Bank on Thursday. Whilst no movement on rates is expected at any of the meetings, the focus will be on the guidance and outlook shared in particular from Christine Lagarde at the ECB. 

本周将有3次央行利率会议,首先是周二的日本银行,其次是周三的加拿大银行,最后是周四的欧洲中央银行。尽管根据预期,利率都不会出现变动,但我们要关注的重点将在前瞻指引和展望上,尤为需要关注的是欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德。

The Week Ahead

本周展望

Monday - Quiet session in Europe and Martin Luther King day in the US

周一-欧洲时区没有数据,美国这天是马丁·路德·金纪念日。

Tuesday - BoJ interest rate decision early in the Asian session. UK employment data at 9.30 ahead of German Economic sentiment data at 10 am.  The World Economic Forum Conference begins in Davos

周二-在亚洲时段早上,日本央行将做出利率决定。英国的就业数据将于9:30发布,德国经济景气数据将于10点发布。世界经济论坛会议将在达沃斯开幕。

Wednesday -  UK Public Sector Net Borrowing at 9.30. In the US session first up is Canadian Inflation data before the Canadian Interest rate meeting at 3 pm

周三-英国公共部门净借款将于9:30发布。北美时区,首先是加拿大通货膨胀数据,其次是下午3点的加拿大利率会议。

Thursday - Australian employment data comes first in the Asian session. At 12.45 the ECB will announce interest rates followed by the press conference at 1.30 pm. 

周四-亚洲时区最早发布的数据是澳大利亚就业数据。欧洲央行将在中午12:45宣布利率决定,随后在下午1:30举行新闻发布会。

Friday - French, German and Eurozone PMI data dominates the morning session before we again hear from ECB Head Lagarde at 9.30. At the same time, we receive UK Manufacturing and Services PMI data. In the US session, we get Canadian Retail Sales and UK Manufacturing and Services PMI

周五-早盘时段,法国、德国和欧元区PMI数据占据主导地位,随后我们将在9:30再次听到欧洲央行行长拉加德的发言。同时,我们将得到英国制造业和服务业PMI数据。在北美时区,我们将获得加拿大零售销售额、英国制造业与服务业PMI的数据。



Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

上一篇 下一篇

0条评论
最新 最早 最热
:
刚刚
相关文章

最新加入

最新评论

dengbao20190516_126_com: twitter上有个人说去年十月美国已经有疫情了。https://twitter.com/_fuckyournorm/status/1241029757761982464 查看原文 06月12日 17:02
dengbao20190516_126_com: 《人在温哥华》报道称“死亡人数逼近9万 美卫生部长开始甩锅有色人种”https://info.vanpeople.com/?action-viewnews-catid-50-itemid-1075907 查看原文 06月12日 16:55
dengbao20190516_126_com: Infotagion媒体写了一篇关于“事实检查:COVID-19是由美国军事实验室制造的吗?”大家来看看吧https://infotagion.com/factcheck-was-covid-19-created-by-a-us-military-lab/ 查看原文 06月12日 16:47
amp13319216570_163_com: dfewfew 查看原文 04月17日 16:50
amp13319216570_163_com: 大国风范qqq 查看原文 04月16日 10:28