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股市开盘暴跌,病毒全球性跳增引发避险情绪


The markets opened in freefall as we came into the new trading week as the virus spreads across the globe into South Korea, Japan and Italy. As last week closed with the number of new cases reported in China starting to show signs of receding there was a glint of hope that we may be coming towards the end of the worst of the virus. However, with several new cases being reported in Beijing over the weekend as well as rising numbers in Korea, Japan and now the 4th death in Italy, the markets plunged through fear of the global implications of such an epidemic.

随着新型冠状病毒在全球范围内扩散至韩国、日本和意大利,本周开盘时,市场就像自由落体一样下跌。临近上周末时,中国报告的新确诊病例数量已经开始显示出回落的迹象,这让人看到了希望,可能最严峻的时期即将结束。然而在周末,北京又确诊了几起新病例,韩国和日本的病例数上升,以及意大利出现了第4例死亡,出于对这次流行疾病全球影响的担心,市场随之暴跌。

With stocks having a broadly positive week last week, as the indices marched on in 2020 they most certainly came crashing down this morning, with most major stock futures opening over 2% down, and the South Korean stock market is nearly double that. With Japan closed for a national holiday today, it will be expected to see a stock market gap at tomorrows open. In Italy curfews in a number of towns show how seriously they are taking the threat of contagion and concerns grow over the country’s ability to deal with the economic slowdown this will bring.

上周股市表现总体良好,2020年来一直稳步上升的股指,今晨开始暴跌,多数主要股指期货开盘跌幅超过2%,而韩国股市的跌幅几乎接近4%。由于日本今天因国定假日而休市,预计明早开盘时将出现缺口。在意大利,许多城镇开始实行宵禁,这表明了他们对病毒传染的重视程度。但是,意大利是否有能力应对由此带来的经济放缓?人们对此的担忧日益增加。

This indeed is the story for the global economy, with nearly 80,000 confirmed cases now and thousands of factories and businesses closed what will the impacts be and when will they start to show.

病毒如今决定了全球经济的未来走向,全球目前已有近8万例确诊病例,数千工厂和企业关闭。这将产生什么影响,何时开始显现?

Naturally, oil is coming under heavy pressure trading down towards $50 per barrel this am, large shipping companies like Maersk are starting to manage expectations by forewarning its profit outlook, a pattern that will inevitably be mirrored across most importer/exporters.  

油价也承担重压,今早跌至每桶50美元的价格。像马士基这样的大型航运公司开始通过利润预警来调整预期,相比这也将成为大多数进出口商争相仿效的模式。

The main flight to comfort we are seeing is towards gold. After a positive week last week, the gap at this week open took the commodity up to 1680, before a pullback and retest as the London market opened.

我们看到,黄金成为主要的避险选择。在经历了上周积极的一周后,本周开盘的缺口使大宗商品价格上涨至1680,在伦敦市场开盘后,出现了价格回调和重新测试。

The safe-haven opportunity is not the only reason for gold investment, with the outlook for global interest rates being to the downside, meaning for many countries it could soon cost to hold cash, gold presents itself as a haven to negative rates and for that reason whilst the virus continues to grab the headlines the outlook will remain bullish.

避险并不是投资黄金的唯一原因,另一个原因是全球利率的下行前景。对于许多国家来说,用不了多久,持有现金可能反而会产生成本,而黄金本身就是负利率时期的避风港。因此,随着病毒继续占据新闻头条,黄金的前景将持续乐观。

With a relatively quiet week ahead including no Central Bank updates or minutes, the focus will remain on virus updates and profit warnings. What will be interesting is how the US markets deal with the fall in stock markets. Throughout this year any significant fall has been greeted by buyers who are happy with the opportunity of value and look to capitalise on the temporary pullback. However, a prolonged period of selling could really send panic through the markets and start to bring short covering.

这一周的数据相对较少,没有央行的更新或会议记录发布。因此,重点将放在病毒的进展和盈利预警上,以及美国市场将如何应对股市的下跌。对于今年一整年发生的每次价格重大下跌,买家都将乐于见到,因为他们想要趁暂时回调的低价机会买入。但是,长时间的抛售在实际情况中将可能引发市场恐慌并开始抛空补回。

The week ahead:

Monday:

·         Ifo Business Climate – Germany

·         Dallas Manufacturing Index - US

Tuesday:

·         GDP Growth – Germany

·         House Price Index – US

·         Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - US

Wednesday:

·         New Home Sales - US

Thursday:

·         Business Confidence – Eurozone

·         Housing Prices – UK

·         GDP Growth – US

·         Durable Goods – US

·         Unemployment Rate – Japan

·         Retail Sales – Japan

·         Industrial Production - Japan

Friday:

·         Gfk Consumer Confidence – UK

·         GDP Growth – France

·         Unemployment Rate – Germany

·         Inflation Rate – Eurozone

·         Chicago PMI – US

·         Michigan Consumer Sentiment – US

·         Personal Spending/Income - US


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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