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全球股市崩坏!各国央行们准备好救赎了吗?


Last week saw a significant global shift in the Coronavirus as many cases were reported throughout the world. As Chinese daily cases start to recede the progression of infection is escalating sharply in South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy. There have also been many first cases reported throughout the world, spooking the investing world and creating one of the sharpest corrections lower seen in global stocks since the 1930s.

上周,新冠病毒在全球范围内的传播中心发生了重大转移,全世界各地均出现了新的病例。随着中国每日新增病例开始逐渐减少,韩国、日本、伊朗和意大利的病毒传播的急剧升级显得更加严峻,许多国家报道了它们的第一批确诊病例。这些情况让投资者受到严重惊扰,造成了自从1930年代经济大萧条以来全球股票最大幅的下调之一。

 

Following on from the trend seen in the last two days of the previous week, stocks started the week lower,  but as the week went on the escalation of cases brought panic selling at an alarming rate, bringing the US S&P down from the year highs of 3400, down 16% to lows of 2855 on Friday with all other major indices following suit as things looked to be spiralling out of control.

继上上周最后两天呈现的趋势之后,股市上周开盘时举步维艰。但随着一周的推进,病例激增带来了迅速的恐慌性抛盘,使得美国标准普尔指数从3400点的年内高点回落,周五下跌了16%,至2855的低点。其他所有主要股指也类似出现重大下跌,事情似乎正向着失控的方向发展。

 

Flight to safe-haven assets was in full flow as the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc appreciated and Bonds soared pushing yields on US 10 Year bonds to the 1% level.  One asset that disjointed from typical behaviour last week was Gold. Typically we would see an event like this have the metal soaring, but it's believed there was significant profit-taking selling brought by investors liquidating the good positions to pay for and fund the bad.

同时,资金纷纷涌入避险资产,日元和瑞士法郎升值,债券高涨,美国10年期债券的收益率到达了1%水平。上周“特立独行”的资产是黄金。通常这种情况下,我们会看到黄金价格飙升,然而却没有。人们认为,原因可能是部分投资者减持黄金进行获利回吐,从而弥补坏的仓位带来的资金损失。

 

Anticipation was for further downside at the Asian open last night after Chinese Manufacturing PMI fell from 50 last month to 35.7 this data is thought to be the first meaningful insight to the true economic effects of the virus and it was worse than expected. However after a lurch lower at the open by nearly 2% the markets rebounded and started the week positively. The driver of this was positive statements from the Bank of Japan showing their readiness to do whatever is required to stimulate the economy as the virus grips the country.

在中国制造业采购经理指数从上个月的50%跌至35.7%后,昨晚亚洲市场开盘时的情绪更加悲观。该数据被认为是反映了病毒真正经济影响的第一个有意义的数据,结果是比预期的还要差。然而,在开盘下跌近2%之后,市场开始反弹,让本周的开端稍显乐观。造成这种情况的原因是日本央行积极声明,在病毒遏制经济的情况下,他们准备采取一切必要措施来刺激经济。

 

This week’s primary focus will be on the reaction of the world’s major Central Banks the markets need a kick start and it’s at times like these the Central Banks need to be proactive, however, should they dither or delay the selling could well return quickly.

本周的主要焦点将是全球各大中央银行的举动,市场需要刺激来重回正轨。像现在这样的时刻,人们需要看到中央银行主动采取行动,一旦它们表现出犹豫或延迟,我们很可能很快又会看到抛售。

 

There are many rumours regarding collaborative intervention this week like was seen in 2008, however, they remain unsubstantiated. We do have scheduled rate-setting meetings from the RBA early tomorrow, who in the face of a tumbling Aussie Dollar will be forced to cut rates. On Wednesday we hear from The Canadian Central Bank who have seen their currency weaken as global demand for oil has fallen taking the price to $45 per barrel, so again action is required.

外界一直有着关于央行将像2008年那样合作干预的传言,但都没有得到任何证实。明天早些时候,澳大利亚央行将举行会议,面对澳元贬值,他们将不得不降息。周三,我们将得到来自加拿大中央银行的消息,全球对石油的需求下降使其价格跌至每桶45美元,加币随之走弱,因此加拿大央行也需要采取行动。

 

In the US the “will they won’t they cut rates” question for Jerome Powells Fed Reserve has changed to “how soon and how much”.  The market has now fully priced in a March cut of at least 25 bps with many expecting 50 bps but all eyes will be on Fed speakers or the mention of extraordinary meetings, the same can be said for the UK and Eurozone with the latter having less scope due to the current low level of rates meaning additional methods of stimulus will be required.

在美国,针对杰罗姆·鲍威尔领导的美联储的问题已经从“会不会降低利率”变成了“什么时候降和降多少”。现在的市场价格已经完全考虑到了3月份降息25个基点的情况,许多人预期价格将下降50个基点,但所有人的注意力都将集中在美联储发言人身上,并将十分关注任何对特别会议的提及。英国和欧元区的情况也是这样,欧元区目前较低的利率水平导致其政策空间受限,这意味着,欧洲央行需要寻找其他的刺激方法。

 

In the UK the Pound trades heavily sustaining the move below 1.3000, currently trading around  1.2800 as the UK heads into negotiations with the EU. Domestically the accusation of harassment by the Home Secretary Priti Patel on the Home Office head has dented the top-level leadership. Over the weekend PM Johnson warned that there will be more cases of the virus to come, but assured that the NHS was well placed to deal with it. Additionally this week the UK will look to solidify a trade deal with the US.

英国方面,英镑交易艰难,继续维持低于1.3000的水平。在英国正与欧盟进行谈判的同时,英镑兑美元目前约为1.2800。 在英国国内,内政大臣普里蒂·帕特尔对内政部负责人的欺凌指控使高层领导受到重创。上周末,首相约翰逊警告称,英国将会有更多的病例出现,但确信英国国家医疗服务系统NHS有足够的能力应对。另外,英国将在本周继续巩固与美国的贸易协议。

 

The Week Ahead

本周展望

 

Monday: 星期一:

- Markit Manufacturing PMI: IT, FR, DE, Eurozone 马基制造业PMI:意大利,法国,德国,欧元区

- Mortgage Data: UK 贷款抵押数据:英国

- GDP 2019: IT 国内生产总值GDP:意大利

- ISM Manufacturing PMI: US ISM制造业PMI:美国

 

Tuesday: 星期二:

- Interest Rate Decision: Australia 利率决定:澳大利亚

- Consumer Confidence: Japan 消费者信心:日本

- Unemployment Rate: Eurozone 消费者信心:欧元区

- Total Vehicle Sales: US 全部汽车销售:美国

 

Wednesday: 星期三:

- GDP 2019: Australia GDP 2019:澳大利亚

- Interest Rate Decision: Canada 利率决定:加拿大

- ISM Composite PMI: US ISM复合PMI:美国

 

Thursday: 星期四:

- Factory Orders: US 工厂订单:美国

 

Friday: 星期五:

- Halifax House Price Index: UK 哈利法克斯房屋价格指数:英国

- Non Farm Payrolls: US 非农就业报告:美国


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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