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石油纷争和病毒肆虐双打击 市场受组合拳重创


The last week in the financial markets will, unfortunately, be one that is looked back on in history for all the wrong reasons.  With the virus starting to take hold across the world most significantly in South Korea, Japan and Italy and with the early signs of a foothold of infection forming in Seattle and New York in the US and across the UK panic is starting to set in.  Normally this panic is isolated to those types who chose to fill their cupboards with food and supplies.  However, last week panic was seen from the central banking community.

上周金融市场的糟糕表现,想必在多年之后,仍然会被人们谈及。随着新型冠状病毒开始在全球范围内扩散,尤其是在韩国、日本和意大利,并在美国西雅图和纽约以及英国各地开始形成据点式传播,人们的恐慌愈加明显。通常情况下,公众的恐慌只会影响到那些会囤积食物和补给品的人,然而上周,我们嗅到了中央银行的恐慌。

With major stock indices continually coming under downside pressure on a daily basis as fear has set into the market, we firstly saw Australia chose to cut interest rates, this was very much as expected due to the Australian markets strong correlation to the Chinese markets from an import/export perspective.

由于恐惧情绪主导市场,主要股指每天都持续承受着下行压力。我们首先看到澳大利亚央行选择降息,这完全在市场预期内,因为贸易方面的紧密联系导致澳大利亚市场与中国市场之间存在高度相关性。

It was the US Federal Reserve that created the biggest shock of the week. Having been under heavy pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy the Fed took the bold step of acting between scheduled meetings and cutting rates by 50 basis points.

美联储才是上周造成最大震荡的那个。面对总统特朗普想通过降息来刺激经济的沉重压力,美联储采取了大胆的行动,在下一次常规利率会议之前就声明,降息50个基点。 

The initial reaction by the stock markets was positivity but in no time at all that was reversed as the speculation rose that perhaps the threats of the virus were greater than expected in the US and the Fed had panicked, so much so that it’s now expected that we see further cuts from them next week if not before.

股市最初的反应是积极的,但是没过多久,市场猜测美联储如此“恐慌”,是因为冠状病毒对美国的威胁将大于预期。市场如今进一步预期,美联储将在下周再次降息,甚至更早。

Even the success of Joe Biden in the Democratic Presidential Primaries was incapable of bringing any respite to the downwards trajectory of the markets. Friday's US Employment data leap also failed to bring any meaningful buyers to the market as virus updates from around the globe continued to dictate the markets.

即使是乔·拜登在民主党总统候选人初选中获得成功的好消息,也无法让市场在下行中获得任何喘息的机会。周五发布的美国就业数据大大好于预期,然而也未能吸引任何有意义的买家进入市场,主导市场的决定因素仍在全球各地的病毒进展上。

With the weekends always creating the danger of gap risk on open positions, there was some buying at the close as positions were lightened as the investors looked for a steady weekend of news updates. That wasn’t to be, and as we heard of growing cases across Europe, with Italy having to take the step of enforcing non-travel on nearly 16 million in infected regions.

由于周末总是有造成未平仓头寸出现缺口风险的可能,做空投资者在认为周末新闻将趋向平缓的情况下,通过收盘时买入来部分平仓。但事实情况并非如此。欧洲各地的病例不断增加,意大利不得不采取措施,对近1600万人口的受感染地区进行限制流动。

However, there was worse still to come for the markets at the open as Russia and Saudi Arabia could not find resolution in the OPEC talks with Russia walking out of the discussions meaning at the open last night oil immediately fell from $42 a barrel to below $30 plunging even more misery on the markets bringing a further flight to safe haven with the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc being bought.

糟糕的不止这些,由于俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯在OPEC与俄罗斯的谈判中找不到解决方案,让市场开盘的情况变得更加糟糕。昨晚开盘,石油立即从每桶42美元跌至30美元以下。种种负面因素,刺激了投资者购买日元和瑞士法郎,进一步避险。

One asset class that has had an interesting journey in the last week is Gold. The textbooks teach us that at times like these its the go-to asset and whilst its week on week performance is positive, the upward trajectory has not matched the downside plunge seen in stocks. The only reasonable explanation for this is that as investors looking to fund margin on losing positions look to free up cash to do so, gold positions could be that sacrifice. If we also bear in mind central banks who are looking to stimulate their economy and fund emergency aid programmes will also hold some of the bigger gold positions we could have the answer to the disjointed path of gold over the last week.

上周黄金的表现十分有趣。教科书理论告诉我们,在这样的时刻,黄金是首选资产。尽管按周来看,黄金的表现是积极的,但黄金的上涨和股票的暴跌并不匹配。对此的唯一合理解释是,投资者需要为亏损头寸提供保证金,当需要资产变现时,黄金头寸可能就被牺牲。别忘了,为了刺激经济并为紧急援助项目提供资金,中央银行也会持有较大的黄金头寸,这或许是上周黄金走势与理论脱节的解释。

The week ahead will undoubtedly be volatile as the virus progresses into new territories. All eyes will be the world's central banks and governments as they look to stabilise and steady their economies with some form of stimulus.  The ECB is the only central bank scheduled to meet this week with new head Christine Lagarde having one of the toughest jobs as the virus grows throughout Europe.

随着病毒传播至新的国家和地区,未来的一周无疑将是动荡的。所有的目光都将投向世界各国的中央银行和政府,关注他们将通过什么形式的刺激来稳定经济。随着病毒在整个欧洲的蔓延,欧洲央行是唯一一个这周将举行会议的央行,对于新任行长克里斯汀·拉加德而言,这将是最艰巨的工作。

The challenge she faces is the lack of interest rate options available to her with rates being historically low, meaning further Quantitative easing is her only option. This poses the further issue of what do they buy with bonds becoming limited by past buying programmes meaning they may need to look to stock purchases.

她面临的挑战是,由于利率已然是历史最低,她在利率方面已无牌可打,这意味着进一步的量化宽松将是她唯一的选择。那么新的问题是:随着过去的购买计划让债券的作用受限,欧洲央行接下来将购买什么?或许这意味着他们可能会考虑购买股票。

In the UK it feels like we are at the start of an inevitable surge in cases of the virus and whilst the FTSE has fallen with global stocks the Pound has performed well. We hear from the new Chancellor of the Exchequer on Wednesday with his budget which couldn’t come at a more pertinent time. With the markets shifting on a daily basis forecasting specific outcomes will be incredibly tricky and for that reason, we would expect the event to cause volatility.

英国方面,我们似乎将不可避免地正面迎接冠状病毒的爆发,富时100指数随全球股市下跌而下跌,英镑则表现良好。我们将于周三从新任财政大臣那里得知英国2020年预算案,这个时间点不能再及时了。市场每天都在变化,预测变得非常困难。我们认为预算案的发布将导致市场波动。

 

本周展望

The Week Ahead


周一 Monday 

· 贸易平衡–德国

Balance of trade – Germany

· 工业产量-德国

Industrial Production - Germany 

 

周二 Tuesday

· 通货膨胀率–中国

Inflation Rate – China

· 机床订单–日本

Machine Tool Orders – Japan

· GDP增长率–欧元区

GDP Growth Rate – Eurozone

· 失业率–韩国

Unemployment Rate – South Korea 

 

周三 wednesday

· GDP增长率–英国

GDP Growth Rate – UK

· 工业产量–英国

Industrial Production – UK

· 制造业产量–英国

Manufacturing Production – UK

· 通货膨胀率–美国

Inflation Rate – US

 

周四 Thursday

· 工业产量–欧元区

Industrial Production – Eurozone

· 欧洲央行利率决定

ECB Interest Rate Decision

 

周五 Friday

· 汽车销售–中国

Vehicles Sales – China

· 通货膨胀率–德国

Inflation Rate – Germany

· 英格兰银行会议

Bank Of England Meeting

· 密歇根州消费者信心指数-美国

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - US

Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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