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全球陷入抗疫艰难时期!世界各国政府和央行如何救市?


In an unprecedented week that has shaken the globe and financial markets the world governments and central banks have had to step in to try and halt the demise of the global markets. As the virus impacts expand into Asia, Europe and the Americas, forcing the public and businesses into shutdown, lockdown and into self isolation the strength of businesses and infrastructure around the world is being called into question, and naturally the financial markets the bellwether gauge is showing severe signs of distress. 

对于全球金融市场来说,上周带来的震撼是前所未有的。世界各国政府和中央银行纷纷被迫出面干预,来阻止全球市场的衰落。随着病毒的影响扩展到亚洲、欧洲和美洲,迫使企业停摆、公共场所封锁和民众自我隔离,全球企业和基础设施应对疫情的承受能力受到质疑。金融市场最为最重要的前导信号,如今身陷困境。


As businesses are forced to close, work from home or reduce staff to key workers with many shops, restaurants, theaters and general public facing businesses and services are non operational. This step is essential to deter the spread of the virus and restrictions will likely remain in place for weeks to come, but naturally this halt will come at a huge cost to business from sole traders all the way up to multinational companies. 

随着企业不得不关闭、鼓励员工开始在家办公或裁员,许多商店、餐厅、剧院和面向公众的服务都无法继续运营。这一步的确对于阻止病毒传播至关重要,限制措施也可能会在未来数周内继续实行,但这种停滞对企业来说却意味着巨大的成本消耗,这不仅对个人商家来说是打击,即便对于大型跨国公司来说也是难关。


The true threat to business has been reflected in the markets with stock markets all in the region of 30-35% down from the highs. In the last week we have seen continual efforts to stem the flow of the markets and more importantly ease the flow of lending in the form of emergency loans to businesses and payment windows to ease the income gap as the economy remains on virtual lockdown. Central banks around the world have been cutting interest rates and issuing quantitative easing programmes as well as additional employment cushion programmes, wage supplementation and direct payments. 

企业所面临的威胁已经反映在了市场上,所有股市均从高点下跌了30-35%。在上周,我们看到央行和政府持续努力来阻止股市资金外流,更重要的是,在经济几乎处于封锁状态的情况下,通过向企业提供紧急贷款和延缓本金还款期限,从而缓解紧迫的收进差距。世界各国的中央银行一直在降低利率,发行量化宽松计划,以及推出其他就业缓冲计划、工资补贴和政府直接的补助。


Despite the measures seen so far, the intensity of the virus seen in Italy, the rapid growth of cases seen in Spain, the US and the UK we still open the trading week with stock futures plummeting and hitting the circuit breakers at 5% rather swiftly. So whilst the national pledges are welcomed by the public the markets won't be satisfied until we start to see a turn in the direction of new cases.  

尽管迄今已采取多种措施,由于意大利的疫情仍然严重,以及西班牙、美国和英国看到的病例仍在迅速增长,我们在本周开盘时仍然看到股票期货暴跌,迅速达到5%的熔断水平。因此,尽管公众对国家承诺的积极措施表示欢迎,但除非我们开始看到病例增长开始减速,否则市场将并不会满足。


The positive the markets are clinging to is the case of China, whilst the loss and devastation bore saddening lives lost and economic hardship, already we are seeing reassuring progression of activity. It's also notable that 2 weeks after Wuhan went into lockdown the daily number of cases started to fall. Yesterday, after 15 days in lockdown Italy showed its first daily reduction in cases, and whilst the number was just fractionally lower there remains hope that a continuation is seen. 

市场目前将中国的情况视为唯一的寄托。虽然在中国,疫情造成的生命损失和经济困境都令人悲痛,但我们目前看到但进展令人欣慰。同样值得注意的是,在武汉封城两周后,每日新增病例数就开始下降。昨天,在封城15天后,意大利的每日新增病例数首次出现下降,尽管目前只是略有减少,但病例递减已经成为看得见的希望。


For nearly a year now we have seen the stock market dictate the pace of the economy, but over the last few weeks as the heath of companies has become the core focus the shift has migrated to the credit markets. There has also been a significant downturn in the Bond market as these once safe assets perhaps seem more of a concern, selling has also been seen in these markets as Funds sell the good to fund the bad stock positions. 

在过去近一年的时间里,我们看到股市引导了着经济的步伐。但在过去的几周中,随着公司的健康状况成为核心关注点,人们的焦点转移到了信贷市场。债券市场也呈现低迷,因为这些曾经安全的资产如今似乎变得令人担忧。由于众多基金需要通过卖出部分债券投资来为表现不佳的股票头寸提供资金,债券市场中也出现了抛售。


The week ahead will be very much focused on of course head line numbers of cases across the globe and the aid packages offered by governments and central banks. In the UK we await to hear the details of how the government aid scheme will work and in the US Trump will push to get his aid package through Congress. Today we have an emergency G20 meeting early in the US session and its thought pressure will be applied to rectify the Oil dispute which has been detrimental at a perilous time and of course the collective group will discuss methods for stemming the fall of markets. 

在接下来的一周,我们将非常关注全球病例数量变化以及政府和中央银行提供的援助计划。英国方面,我们正等待政府宣布援助计划的运作细节。美国方面,特朗普将推动国会通过他的援助方案。今天美国早盘时,各国将召开一次G20紧急会议,人们认为,会议讨论重点之一将是石油争端,在这个危急时刻,石油争端将使问题加重。当然,各国也将讨论如何阻止市场下跌的方法。


Have a safe week

希望一周平安!


The Week Ahead

本周展望


周一 Monday

· 芝加哥联储国家活动指数–美国

Chicago Fed National Activity Index – US y 

· 消费者信心指数-欧元区

Consumer Confidence Flash - Eurozone


周二 Tuesday

· 制造业PMI快照-日本

Jibun PMI – Japan

· 马基PMI –法国、德国、英国、美国及欧元区

Markit PMI – FR, DE, UK, US, Eurozone

· 零售销售额-美国

Retail Sales – US

· 新房销售–美国

New Home Sales – US

· 里士满制造业指数-美国

Richmond Manufacturing Index - US


周三 wednesday

· Ifo商业环境– 德国

Ifo Business Climate – DE

· 通货膨胀率–英国

Inflation Rate – UK

· 零售物价指数–英国

Retail Price Index – UK

· 耐用品订单-美国

Durable Goods Orders - US


周四 Thursday

· GfK消费者信心指数-德国

GfK Consumer Confidence – DE

· 公司和家庭贷款–欧元区

Loans to Companies & Households – Eurozone

· 英国央行量化宽松政策–英国

BOE Quantitative Easing – UK

· 第4季度GDP-美国

GDP Q4 - US


周五 Friday

· 工业利润–中国

Industrial Profit – China

· Nationwide房价指数-英国

Nationwide Housing Prices

· 个人收入和支出-美国

Personal Income & Spending – US

· 密歇根州消费者信心指数–美国

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – US



Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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