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双语:欧洲央行慷慨加码6000亿!欧元迎头赶上


The year of 2020 has continued to show twists and turns as we deal with events that have never been seen before.  This has brought complete disparity from the “norm” as we must ignore typical market behaviors and react to the market that is in front of you. This week brought two obvious examples of exactly that.

2020年真是充满了变化与反转,从未经历过的重大事件频频发生,让我们不能再用平时的角度思考问题,之前的常规市场分析指标不再适用,而需要投资者对当下的市场作出及时反应。这周发生的两个例子就很好地印证了这一点。

In the US where for the last 8 weeks we have seen multiples of millions of fresh unemployed on a weekly basis, this week we have seen the continuation of surging stock markets as there seems an intention to recoup all of the February and March downside in the Major indices, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 within touching distance of not only the years highs, but all time highs, with the Nasdaq having broken them.  This feels even more staggering when we look at the domestic disharmony on display in most states across the US.  How can US stocks be so attractive? The answer comes in the shape of not just the stimulus we have seen, but the warnings that they have another $4-7 Trillion ready to pump if needed.  This has meant that whilst many companies in the US on paper are way overvalued against their balance sheet, the buyers still come.

过去的八周时间里,美国每周都新增上百万的失业人数。这周,我们看到股市持续上涨,各大股指都似乎想要收复2、3月份的“失地”,道琼斯指数和S&P 500试探年度高位,甚至向历史高位的方向努力着。纳斯达克综合指数更是已经超越历史最高。这样高涨的股市情绪与美国国内大多数州现如今并不和谐的社会状况形成鲜明对比。

美股为何如此吸引人?答案不只是各种刺激手段,更是因为,美联储已经准备随时向市场再注入4万亿到7万亿的“弹药”。因此,尽管许多美国公司已经远远高估于其账面价值,但买家们仍疯狂购买。

What seems undeniable is the fact Trump is axed on having the stock market as high as possible, seeing surging stocks as his benchmark of success as we head into the November elections. But his recent handling of the Covid-19 situation and now his handling of the racial disharmony will stand against him. So, as we weigh up the potential outcomes for November the question remains, what problems will the then president have to deal with, and inflationary pressures scream out as the biggest worry of stimulus of this magnitude.  For now, as a trader one key discipline that can't be ignored is don’t fight the trend, but perhaps post-election if not before, as the real damage to businesses of the Covid situation becomes known, we could see a significant shift in the markets. At this moment tech and leisure seem to be where investors are seeking value, even with leisure companies still locked down, and even as the fears of a “second wave” seem to be dissipating, the short term outlook for bookings and business normalization seem bleak.

无可否认的是,美国总统特朗普希望推高股市,他将股市大涨视为自身成功的标准,能为11月的大选加分。然而,他在Covid-19疫情和近日美国国内种族矛盾升级问题上的处理却差强人意,这或许会成为他竞选道路上的绊脚石。在大选结束后,下一任美国总统将面临怎样的问题?无法再忽视的通胀压力也让如此大规模的刺激手段显得更加让人忧心。

目前来说,作为一名交易员,一个最重要的原则是“不要与趋势做对”。但是,在大选前后,Covid-19所对企业带来的真正影响终将表现出来,届时我们可能会看到市场的巨变。如今,科技行业和休闲行业的公司被投资者视为价值股,哪怕部分休闲行业的公司仍在封锁当中。尽管目前第二轮封锁的可能性降低了,但这些公司想在短期内恢复营业并获得订单的可能性也很是渺茫。

The second example of disparity came as we finally saw the European Central Bank step up their stimulus measures. After a warning from Christine Lagarde the ECB head last week that they were poised to act, starting the wave of Euro buying as we saw rotation from safe haven currencies. Despite her warning, Thursdays meeting remained wide open for eventualities, with consensus opinion being that we saw Euro 500 billion announced there were concerns we could see a more cautious approach of Euro 250 billion or perhaps more optimistically 750 billion with it broadly expected rates remain unchanged. What transpired was a strong package and delivery from Lagarde as she announced Euro 600 bln, showing strength but leaving just enough ammunition should it have been needed, bringing significant appreciation in the currency market as the Eur/Usd rate jumped from 1.1000 to 1.1400 with the Eur/Jpy rate jumping from 119 to nearly 125 at its highest point. 

第二个例子是,欧洲中央银行宣布了刺激措施。上周欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示将随时采取行动,这让市场掀起一波欧元购入潮,避险货币再度失宠。周四的央行会议上,众人口风是一切皆有可能。此前市场共识是欧央行将提供5000亿欧元的刺激计划,同时舆论也预期了一好一坏两种可能性,好的可能性是欧央行将这项刺激计划增加到7500亿欧元,利率维持不变。坏的可能性是欧央行更保守地只投入2500亿欧元纾困金。

最终结果是,拉加德强力表态将救助计划增加6000亿欧元,一方面展现出决心,另一方面也为之后留下了充足的弹药库。这样的消息大幅提振外汇市场,欧元/美元从1.1000涨至1.1400,欧元/日元从119一下跃至125的高点。

So again in typical divergence from the norm we saw huge Quantitative Easing bringing currency gain as the inflation/deflation issues normally brought by QE remain ignored.  But, there certainly seems to be a market shift towards Europe, as it emerges first from the virus lockdown, and with high level portfolios underweight in Euro denominated investments the moves have been corrective towards what we have seen in the US. 

我们再次看到反常行为——在巨额的量化宽松后,货币竟上涨,量化宽松通常会带来的通货膨胀/通货紧缩问题全都被抛之脑后了。但是,欧洲市场似乎迎来投资机会,因为欧洲率先从封锁中恢复,并且在众多投资组合中以欧元计价的资产持有不足的情况下,市场的行动轨迹却表现得与美国截然相反。

In the UK, despite the improvements in infection rates and deaths, we remain well behind Europe, with one day this week the UK deaths totalling the entirety of European cases. However progress is being made, and steps to enforce public to wear PPE on public transport, shows the government are preparing for a return to work, with many businesses targeting a start of July resumption.  The Pound has gained against the US Dollar this week, but that seems more of a weak Dollar story, with the Brexit negotiations again suffering delay and confrontation as the EU looks to extend the negotiating period and UK officials adamant they must be completed this year. 

英国方面,尽管感染率和死亡率数值均有所下降,却仍比其他欧洲国家要高。本周的其中一天,英国的死亡人数与所有其他欧洲国家死亡人数总和持平。然而,我们还是看到了进步,英国政府宣布使用公共交通的乘客必须穿戴个人医疗防护装备。这表明了,英国政府正在为复工做着努力。许多商店预期将在7月份恢复营业。英镑/美元本周有所上涨,但更多是由于美元变弱。“脱欧”协商仍然缓慢进行,欧盟希望能够延长协商的时间,然而英国官员却坚定表示今年内必须商议出结果。

周五发布的美国失业人数让美股高开。随着5月的美国失业人数出人意料地有所下降,市场似乎已经忘却了此前负面消息,沉浸在就业情况好转的喜悦中。失业率从14.7%下降至13.3%,这释放出积极的信号,人们感觉失业人数增长似乎已经封顶。继上个月减少了近2100万后,本月非农就业人数增长了250万。下周三,美联储将举行会议,不知这样的就业数据是否会影响美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话,他的态度也将是下周最重要的能够引起市场波动的因素。

Friday's unemployment data from the US brought another surge in equities as it seems the market shrugs off the bad news and jumps on any glint of hope as the US unemployment rate surprisingly fell in May. This turn in data is fuel to hopes that the unemployed number is topping out as headline unemployment fell from 14.7% to 13.3%, with the non-farm payroll number climbing by 2.5 million jobs after the fall of nearly 21 million seen last month. It will be interesting to see what impact this has on Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve’s narrative when they meet next Wednesday, which will likely be the key volatility point next week. 

The Week Ahead: 

未来一周前瞻:

Monday: German Industrial Production and UK BRC Retail Sales in the am.The ECB’s Christine Lagarde speaks in the afternoon.  

上午我们将获得德国工业制造数据和英国BRC零售销售额。欧洲央行行长拉加德将在下午发表讲话。

Tuesday: ANZ Business confidence data from New Zealand first thing. German, French and Eurozone Trade balance as well as Eurozone Revised GDP and Employment Change q/q. 

周二将获得澳新银行商业信心数据,德国、法国和欧元区贸易差额、欧元区修订GDP数据以及季度环比就业人数变化。

Wednesday: Chinese CPI and PPI data early in the session. In the afternoon we get US CPI and Core CPI. In the evening we get the US Federal Reserve interest Rate decision, Statement and Projections

早盘时段,我们将得到中国消费者价格指数和生产者物价指数数据;下午我们将得到美国消费者价格指数和核心消费者价格指数;晚些时候,美联储将发布利率决议以及预期。

Thursday: RICS house price data from the UK comes early morning. The Eurogroup meetings continue throughout the day. US PPI and Core PPI and weekly Unemployment comes in the US session. 

上午将发布英国RICS房价指数,白天将举行欧元集团会议。美国方面,将发布生产者物价指数数据、核心生产者物价指数数据和周失业人数。

Friday: UK GDP is the highlight of the morning session. In the afternoon the main data is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data

英国GDP是上午的重要数据,下午的主要数据是密歇根大学消费者情绪数据。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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