首页 / 商业理财 / 双语:欧洲市场终于被看到,英国的高光时刻何时来?

双语:欧洲市场终于被看到,英国的高光时刻何时来?


This week we started on the same footing as has been seen in previous weeks, with stocks on the front foot determined to take on and make new highs.  This was backed up by a roundly positive set of earnings from US companies, the highlight being Tesla which surged onto new highs of around 1670 up incredibly four times the value from where we opened the year as it pushes to be welcomed into the S&P 500.

本周延续了前几周的趋势,股市仍然气势如虹,准备冲击新高。这不得不归功于美国公司发布的优异财报。其中,特斯拉尤为出色,大涨至每股1670美元,是今年开年价格的4倍,踏入标普500的大门指日可待。

As the dust settled on the strong earnings from the surging Tesla, we started to see a rotation from investors, taking profits out of these overreaching stocks and rotating into value stocks like the banking sector. There is a clear indication that the so called “Robinhood” investors will buy at any cost, with questions remaining on whether they are actually aware they can short stocks. However, towards the later part of the week as it was announced the US and China were closing embassies in each other’s countries, the buying evaporated.

在特斯拉财报掀起的热情冷却过后,我们看到,投资者逐渐开始逢高卖出热门股票,并转而投向包括银行股在内的价值型股票。同时,美国年轻人最喜欢的零佣金交易平台Robinhood涌入了一批狂热的新手投资者,他们无惧股价高位,“盲目”买入,人们甚至怀疑,这些Robinhood投资者们并不知道炒股还有做空这样的选项。在本周最后两个交易日,随着美国和中国互撤领事馆的新闻一出,市场在猝不及防中开始下跌。

If we add in the fact that virus cases continue to surge across the US, a point that has been duly ignored by the stock markets over the last few weeks, there could well be a case for a short term top being put in the market. Indeed, we used the midweek spike as an opportunity to offload a significant percentage of our portfolio. The question is, how far does the market contract before the value buyers come back in?  Whilst we have seen a significant change in stance from US President Donald Trump in the last week as his bullish and dismissive stance towards the virus. Whilst the case numbers were increasing it started to affect his standing in the polls.  As soon as this was identified he duly picked up a mask and his stance shifted. The fact remains that for him to get reelected the US stock markets cannot fall, and he will use the balance sheet to underpin this regardless of the long term inflationary effects and whilst currently, everything points to lower stocks, until the election there will be verbal and physical actions to push it higher from the presidential team.

我们别忘了,美国现在仍然深陷新冠病毒的困扰中,尽管股市在过去的几周里似乎无视了美国病例数激增的情况,这却是市场短期内压顶的乌云。的确,我们抓住了周中高价的机会,对投资组合进行了大比例调整。现在的问题是,在价值投资者入场前,市场会缩水多少?上周,美国总统特朗普一改他此前轻视新冠病毒的态度。因为随着病例数的持续增加,他的总统竞选也受到了影响,于是他立刻戴上了口罩,改变了他先前的立场。

对于特朗普来说,想要连任,股市定不能崩。无论会造成多高的长期通胀,他都会通过操作美联储资产负债表来力保股市。尽管现在所有的因素都指向股市下跌,但直到选举结果出来之前,特朗普的团队都将会通过各种方式促使股市继续上涨。

This makes next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision very much in play from a volatility perspective. Whilst we do not expect to see movement on rates, the markets will want to hear Jerome Powell’s thoughts on the economic outlook in the short medium and long term. It's no secret there is disharmony between the Fed and the White House so this will likely be the key driver on the markets next week and I am sure the President's Twitter account will be highly active around the decision.

这也让下周将会举行的美联储利率决议成为焦点,预料之外的举动定会引发波动。尽管外界预期利率将维持不变,然而市场仍然关注鲍威尔将对未来长期和短期的经济前景作出怎样的判断。美联储与白宫方面的分歧已经不再是个秘密,因此美联储方面的动向将是下周主导市场的最主要因素。我敢肯定,特朗普届时也会积极发推的。

The European currency and sector bounced back to life this week as we outlined in our previous publication this week https://www.kylinprimecapital.com/en/news-research/205/As-the-Eurogroup-agrees-an-aid-package-Does-the-investment-world-start-to-consider-its-underinveste.html. The agreement of an all encompassing aid package showed to the world that the group can work together for a common goal. The European handling and in majority, emergence from lockdown had the European indices such as the German DAX surging with the Euro recording highs not seen since 2018.

正如昨天文章中分析的那样,本周欧元和欧洲市场大振。经济复苏计划的达成向世界证明了,欧元区向着共同目标前进的决心。在众多欧洲国家积极应对新冠并结束封锁期的喜讯中,欧元上涨,欧洲股指纷纷表现出色,其中德国达克斯指数创下自2018年以来的新高。

In the UK we still feel behind the curve, with official lockdowns lifted, but personal lockdowns not. There was a slump in the Pound midweek as it was announced that a trade agreement with the US would not be forthcoming ahead of the US Elections. This and noises from both the UK and EU that hard Brexit may be the only reachable outcome. Whilst hard Brexit will likely have downside effects immediately on the economy, over the last few months we are becoming conditioned to accept this as an eventuality. Therefore, the market could well be pricing it in. This can be exemplified in the performance of the FTSE against its international peers, as it struggles to recoup the pandemic losses. Whilst there is a volatile period ahead for the Pound into the years end, there remains little question that there could well be value in the UK for medium and long term forecast. There is certainly a great deal of catching up to do and should a last minute deal be reached that will certainly be the catalyst.

英国在抗疫方面仍然慢人一步,尽管官方已经宣布解除封锁,然而从个人角度看,大家仍然并不能放心出行。在本周中,美国宣布在大选结果揭晓前并不能与英国签订贸易协议,这使得英镑承压下跌。另外,英国与欧盟的谈判也逐渐向着“无协议脱欧”的方向走去。尽管这对英国经济来说无疑将带来负面影响,但在过去几个月的盘旋中,人们也逐渐默认了这样的结果。因此,市场价格已经对此作出了反应。富时指数的表现就印证了这一点,与其他国家的主要股指相比,富时指数仍然深陷新冠病毒所带来的负面影响中。

尽管到年底前,英镑都将可能波动较大,但或许这也是在中长期投资英国的最佳时机。英国需要做的还有很多,如果能在最后关头达成协议,那将必定成为市场的催化剂。

 

The Week Ahead:

Monday: A quiet start to the week with UK Nationwide housing data in the early hours of the morning. In the early European session we get the German IFO and Bundesbank monthly report. The main event comes in the afternoon, with the US Core and Non-Core Durable goods.

早盘时段将发布英国Nationwide房产数据、德国IFO和德国央行的月度报告。下午,我们将得到美国核心和非核心耐用消费品数据。

Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia's Kent speaks in the Asian session. From the UK we get CBI data mid morning. In the US session Consumer Confidence data from the US is the highlight.

澳大利亚联储助力主席肯特将发表讲话。英国方面,我们将在上午获得英国工业联合会发布的数据。美国时段的重点关注是消费者信心指数。

Wednesday: Australian Inflation data kicks a busier day off. From the UK we get Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals and Net Lending Data. In the US Session we get Pending Home Sales ahead of the Federal Reserve Rate decision in the evening as well as the Statement and press conference from Jerome Powell.

本日数据较多,先是澳大利亚通胀数据,英国方面有货币供应量、房屋贷款批准率以及经贷款数据。美国时段,在待完成成屋销售数据发布过后,傍晚将举行美联储利率决议,鲍威尔将举办新闻发布会。

Thursday: The main data in the morning session is German GDP, CPI and German and EU Unemployment data. In the US session we get Advanced US GDP and weekly Unemployment Claims.

德国将发布GDP、CPI和失业数据。美国时段的数据包括先期GDP以及周失业救济金申请人数。

Friday: A busy Asian session with Japanese Unemployment and Industrial Production data. Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data comes next, before Japanese Consumer Confidence and Housing Starts.  A busy European session follows with French/Spanish and Italian GDP, German Retail Sales, and French Italian and EU CPI. In the US session Canadian GDP. US Core PCE and Personal Spending data before the Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment data.

亚洲时段有日本失业数据和工业产值数据、中国制造业和非制造业PMI,以及日本消费者信心指数和房屋开工率。欧洲时段数据同样较多,包括了法国、西班牙和意大利GDP数据,以及德国零售销售额,和法国、意大利及欧盟CPI数据。北美方面,有加拿大GDP,以及美国核心个人消费支出、个人消费数据、芝加哥采购经理人指数以及消费者情绪。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

上一篇 下一篇

0条评论
最新 最早 最热
:
刚刚

最新加入

最新评论

dengbao20190516_126_com: twitter上有个人说去年十月美国已经有疫情了。https://twitter.com/_fuckyournorm/status/1241029757761982464 查看原文 06月12日 17:02
dengbao20190516_126_com: 《人在温哥华》报道称“死亡人数逼近9万 美卫生部长开始甩锅有色人种”https://info.vanpeople.com/?action-viewnews-catid-50-itemid-1075907 查看原文 06月12日 16:55
dengbao20190516_126_com: Infotagion媒体写了一篇关于“事实检查:COVID-19是由美国军事实验室制造的吗?”大家来看看吧https://infotagion.com/factcheck-was-covid-19-created-by-a-us-military-lab/ 查看原文 06月12日 16:47
amp13319216570_163_com: dfewfew 查看原文 04月17日 16:50
amp13319216570_163_com: 大国风范qqq 查看原文 04月16日 10:28
0.1798s