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双语:黄金价格大涨,逼近2000心理关口


本周最受关注的当属“金银两兄弟”,刷新高点,重归上涨格局。这两种贵金属的上涨可以归因于多种因素,首先是其作为避险资产的特殊属性,在疫情肆虐和国际贸易受阻的情况下备受青睐;第二个原因,或许也是最根本的原因,是我们可能在未来很长一段时间里都会持续这种低利率的大环境。这些因素使得黄金和白银成为了主要储备资产。

当然,疲软的美元也在推高黄金方面也扮演了重要角色。美联储主席鲍威尔在本周的会议上表达鸽派立场,这让市场在试图纠正激进的上涨趋势后,再度受到提振。度过本周也意味着7月的结束,今年的7月可能是黄金在最近5年来势头最强劲的一个月,如今正在试图突破2000美元的心理关口,而随着日子一天天过,我们离这个目标也越来越近。

As the week started the main story was the commodity run which took Gold and Silver to fresh and interesting highs. Naturally, these assets gain from multiple factors presently, the first of which being the obvious safe haven factor in light of the pandemic and global trade conflicts. But the second and probably the most pertinent is the fact we are in and seem likely to remain in a historic global low interest rate environment for some time. The realities of these factors escalate them as prime reserve holdings. Of course, the weakness of the US Dollar also plays a significant factor and the relative dovishness of Jerome Powell in this week's Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC) helped buoy the markets when they were feigning towards a correction of the aggressive up move. As we end the week and month, a month that could well be Gold's strongest in the last 5 years we are closing in on the psychological $2000 level which is seeming less insurmountable by the day.

本周中,美联储举行了利率决议会议,与其对利率的前景预期相比,此次会议所传递的立场更加谨慎。尽管一些人预期会有对未来利率走势的更多指导,但随着美国南部地区病例数不断增加,或许鲍威尔持观望态度的做法是正确的。鲍威尔的下一次讲话将会在9月,我们将在现在至夏季假期的这段时间里,关注新冠病毒情况的变化。

病例持续增长不仅仅发生在美国,本周澳大利亚、巴西、西班牙以及德国都有第二波疫情来袭的征兆。尽管人们都对次表示担心,但市场仍未受到影响。

As we mentioned above the US Fed’s mid-week rate setting meeting did have a dovish or more cautionary tone to the Central Banks outlook of interest rates. Whilst some expected perhaps more guidance on the future rate path, with more cases being reported across the Sunbelt States, it was probably correct that he held firm and maintained a wait and see how the virus dynamic shifts between now and the summer break before we next hear from him in September. Obviously, the continual increase in cases is not just in the US, and this week we have seen significant increases in areas of Australia, Brazil, Spain and Germany have warned of significant second wave potential, which whilst at a human level is gravely concerning but as yet the markets remains broadly unreactive.

股市方面,美国营收季让这周尤为重要。光芒四射的“超级巨星股”让纳斯达克强势反弹,完成“V型”复苏,重新试探11000水平。造就这一反弹的主要推手包括了收益较好的脸书以及苹果,消费者们因在家隔离而选择升级他们的电子设备,也使得苹果受益。令人惊讶的是,谷歌母公司Alphabet的广告收入下降,然而尽管如此,当天股价仍然有小幅上涨。

In the stock market it was a big week for US earnings, and the US “superstar” stocks shone in the most part taking the ever resilient Nasdaq significantly through the target of the “V” shaped recovery testing the 11,000 level again. The main drivers for this came with impressive earnings from Facebook and the pick of the bunch, Apple who proved lockdown pushed consumers to update and upgrade their technologies. One slight surprise was Alphabet (Google) posting a fall in Advertising sales, however, despite an initial blip lower the stock did post a modest gain on the day.  

随着我们进入夏季假期月份,投资者对股市普遍持有看涨基调。周一,特朗普的团队同意将为失业者提供援助安排,金额由原本的固定标准改变成根据过往收入按比例发放。然而,这一决策仍未与民主党达成共识,众议院议长佩洛西也并不统一,双方商议仍在继续。另外有消息称,鉴于现在的特殊情况(以及特朗普在民意调查中落后的事实),特朗普团队认为美国大选将可能会被推迟。然而,这种可能性极低。

For now, the bullish tone prevails in stocks as we head into the holiday month. On Monday we saw Trump's team agree to an aid package for the Unemployed, with a shift from a flat fee to a percentage of past earnings, but this remains an issue with the Democrats and Pelosi not allowing it through the Senate as yet with talks ongoing. There was also talk that the Election in the US could be delayed from the Trump team given the exceptional circumstances (and the fact he's behind in the polls) however it remains extremely unlikely this gets agreed upon.

英国方面,在政府宣布解除封锁措施之后,新病例数再度增长,英格兰地区尤为严重。本周,英格兰北部部分地区重新开始实施更为严格的封锁措施,这些地区此前并未遵守政府给出的防疫参考方案。这样的情况促使首相约翰逊延迟了重新开放余下仍未开放商家的决定,赌场和休闲娱乐行业受到影响。

随着8月到来,英国雇主需要开始为“停薪留职”的员工支付部分工资(主要是国家保险和养老金),原本通过政府工作保留计划而保留员工的公司可能将会开始裁员,所以8月将是对失业情况来说至关重要的月份,我们也能更清楚地看到疫情对英国的真实影响。贸易协议方面仍然没有进展,英国与日本的谈判未能产生结果。

The UK and in particular England has not been exempt from the resurgence of cases following the lifting of government lockdowns and this week saw the re instigation of stricter lockdown rules in areas of Northern England, where new guidelines were not being adhered to. This surge encouraged Boris Johnson to extend the suspension of reopening of some of the remaining businesses in the UK, Casinos and Leisure activities. As the UK’s employee shifts in August which takes furloughed employees wages back in part (National Insurance and Pension Contributions) businesses who have been able to retain staff during this period could well look to make necessary redundancies so this month will be pivotal for Unemployment as we look to gauge the true impact of the virus. The news on trade agreements remains bereft of progression with talks between the UK and Japan failing to yield any agreement.

 

The Week Ahead:

 

Monday: It’s a big day for Manufacturing PMI data across the globe with Japan, Italy, France, Spain and the US all reporting.

日本、意大利、法国、西班牙和美国相继发布制造业采购经理人指数。

Tuesday: A big day for Australia with firstly Trade Balance data ahead of the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia and supporting rate statement. It's quite a light day in the European and US sessions before the Employment Data from New Zealand.

澳大利亚方面数据较多,包括贸易差额和澳联储的利率决议。欧洲时段和美国时段数据较少,新西兰发布就业数据。

Wednesday: More PMI’s on Wednesday and this time it's the service sector under the spotlight in Spain, France, Italy, Germany and Non-manufacturing PMI from the US. In the evening we hear from the FOMC’s Mester.

周三将会有来自西班牙、法国、意大利和德国的服务业采购经理人指数,以及美国非制造业采购经理人指数。傍晚时段,我们将听到美国联邦公开市场委员会成员Mester的讲话。

Thursday: New Zealand’s inflation data starts the day. In The European session we get UK Construction PMI and Italian Industrial Production. At midday we get the UK interest rate decision from the Bank of England, and a statement from BoE head Bailey.  Later in the US session we hear from the Fed’s Kaplan.

最先发布的是新西兰通胀数据,欧洲时段我们将得到英国建筑业PMI以及意大利工业产值。中午,我们将听到英格兰银行的利率决议以及行长贝利的讲话。美国方面,将听到美联储成员Kaplan的讲话。

Friday: A further monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia and Chinese Trade Balance data, comes early in the session. The main data of the week comes early in the US session with US and Canadian Employment data and US Average Earnings and Non-farm payrolls.

澳联储将发布货币政策声明,中国方面将有贸易差额数据发布。本周的主要数据是美国和加拿大的就业数据,以及美国平均收入和非农就业人数。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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