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双语:黄金白银继续狂欢,突破具有历史意义水平


In the US the economy is becoming more about politics than economic and physical health and wellbeing, as the Trump administration fixates on the stock market to capitalize on its strength as we head into the election. After another poor public appearance this week where the President underperformed whilst interviewed by Jonathan Swan on HBO, as he wrestled with his charts, and failed to make his case that America's infection rate was “better than the worlds''. Trump decided to pull some outlandish and, in some cases, illogical tricks stirring up past trade agreements and placing sanctions on tech from China and aluminum from Canada.  The latter of which makes little more sense than the fact he simply wants Americans to believe he has American interest at the forefront of his mind, however transparent and self serving his actions look from the outset.

随着美国总统大选进入白热化阶段,特朗普与他的团队痴迷于通过股市的强劲来展现其能力,因此如今的美国经济已经不太受经济数据和公众健康状况的影响,而是更偏向于政治化。本周,特朗普在接受美国HBO电视台记者乔纳森·斯万的采访时又“出了洋相”,在记者的“拷问”下,特朗普慌忙地挥舞着他准备好的图表,但却没能给出支持“美国感染率比世界低”这一观点的根据。

为了转移注意力,特朗普开始采用奇怪的、毫无逻辑的方式,签署行政命令禁用来自中国的科技,对来自加拿大的铝材再次征收关税。这样的举动毫无意义,他只是通过这种方式告诉选民他始终将美国的利益放在首位,但从一开始人们就已经看透了他的心思。

Despite the obvious nature of his actions, the markets buoyed by participation of Retail Investors who now contribute between 20-25% of daily volume, are certainly buying both the President's actions and stocks. Whilst cases continue to rise across areas of the US and globally stocks continue to surge. Whilst data has been better of late in the US, both rising cases and the cross-party friction caused by the argument over the passing of the latest government aid package. Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi spoke out that the Republicans and the Democrats were a long way apart in agreeing the Bill, and with the August shut down looming it's even thought Trump could step out with procedure in order to get aid to those who need it. If agreement isn’t made and virus cases keep rising, there will certainly be a souring of macro-economic data moving forward.

尽管“特朗普之心,路人皆知”,然而市场仍然因此得以提振,其中主力军是散户投资者,占据了日交易量的20%-25%,显然他们对股市和特朗普都“买账”。在全球各国和美国各地区确诊人数都有普遍增加的情况下,股市却涨势不减。

尽管近日美国的数据有所好转,但感染数仍在上升,加之由政府援助方案的讨论而引起的跨党派争论迟迟没有解决。昨日,美国众议院议长佩洛西表示, 两党间想要达成共识还需很长的努力。随着8月形势越来越向再次封锁靠近,有人认为特朗普可能会通过其他途径来向需要援助的人发放资金。如果双方迟迟不能达成共识,且病例数持续增加的情况发生,那么宏观经济数据将进一步恶化。

The main mover in the market this week has been Gold and Silver and the precious metals march on. Gold looks to be closing the week as strongly as it began, having sustained through the $2000 level with forecasters talking about $2500 and $3000 into year end. Like the stock markets for now the weaker US Dollar is fueling the move with notable rises for both the Pound and Euro against the Greenback this week. Only the Canadian Dollar really gave weight this week after a progressive start to the week lifted the Oil dependant Canadian Dollar as Oil targeted a break $43 per barrel news of Trump's sanction on Canada brought a sharp reversal to the 1.3400 area.

本周,黄金、白金和贵金属普遍上涨,带动市场。随着这个交易周结束,黄金继续延续了本周开盘时的强劲势头,维持住了2000美元/盎司的水平,并且被认为有实力在年底前冲击2500至3000水平。与股市相似,黄金的飙升得益于疲软美元的加油助力,同时英镑兑美元和欧元兑美元也有显著上涨。本周只有加拿大元承压,起初,油价突破每桶43美元曾让依赖石油出口的加拿大元有了一个不错的开局,然而特朗普宣布对加拿大铝材征税的消息立即让加元急剧回撤至1.3400水平。

In the UK it was a big week for the Bank of England with their Monetary Policy Meeting on Thursday, and whilst there was no headline movement on rates, the market awaited a guide on their outlook on the bounce back from the virus. Rather unusually, after seeing very conservative forecasts from the leading UK banks in HSBC, Barclays and RBS(Natwest) over the last month the Bank of England was somewhat more optimistic on employment and economic growth. It is certainly unusual to see a disparity between the banking sector and central bank, and it's been mentioned that this could be Andrew Bailey stepping just a bit too far towards optimism. In the UK we continue to see pockets of outbreak resurgence, particularly in Northern England, with Manchester being locked down, even Scotland, which to date had come through the virus relatively well the city of Aberdeen was placed in lockdown as of midweek. One positive, is these micro lockdowns are yielding success as we have seen with Leicester infections now normalising. Brexit and trade deals have been off of the headlines, with little occurring when so much needs to be done.  Coming into the summer month progress could well become more challenging.

本周英国方面的重要事件是周四举行的英格兰银行货币政策委员会会议,尽管利率维持不变,但市场还是期待央行所给出的前瞻指引,如何从疫情的打击中振作起来。令人感到的意外的是,尽管过去几个月以来,包括汇丰、巴克莱以及苏格兰皇家银行集团在内的英国各大银行都对未来预期持保守态度,但央行此次却表示对就业和经济增长持乐观看法。银行业和央行的看法出现如此偏差是尤为少见的,有观点认为,这是源自央行行长贝利过分乐观的判断。

在英国,我们持续看到各地区小范围内的疫情暴发,北英格兰地区尤为严重,曼彻斯特陷入封锁之中。就连以往受疫情影响较小的苏格兰地区都有疫情复发的迹象,其中阿伯丁自周中其开始进入封锁期。令人感到欣慰的是,这样小规模的封锁的确有所成效,莱斯特的感染率已经趋于正常水平。

“脱欧”和贸易谈判已经很久没有上过新闻头条了,尽管谈判急需有所进展,但成效甚微。在未来几个月中,想要进一步推动将变得越来越难。


The Week Ahead:

Monday: First up for the week is Chinese GDP and Australian Consumer Confidence before a quiet European and US session.

周一有中国GDP以及澳大利亚消费者信心指数,美国和欧洲方面数据较少。

Tuesday: UK Unemployment and Average Earnings data comes first. Midmorning we get the German Zew data. In the US session we get core and non-core PPI data.

首先是英国失业数据和平均收入数据。中午我们将获得德国ZEW经济景气指数。美国时段,我们将获得核心和非核心PPI数据。

Wednesday: Early in the Asian session we get the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. From the UK we get GDP data as well as Industrial Production and Manufacturing data. In the US session the main data is core and non-core CPI Inflation data.

亚洲早盘时段,我们将听到来自新西兰联储的利率决议。英国方面,将发布GDP、工业产值以及制造业数据。美国方面主要是核心和非核心CPI的通胀数据。

Thursday: Japanese PPI comes first before Australian Employment and Unemployment data. In the European session we get German CPI. In the afternoon its US Import prices and Weekly Unemployment numbers.

亚洲方面发布数据包括日本PPI以及澳大利亚就业和失业数据。欧洲时段,我们将得到德国CPI。美国将发布进口价格指数以及周失业人数。

Friday: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks early in the Asian session before Chinese Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment. In the European session we get French CPI and Eurozone Flash GDP and Trade Balance. In the US its Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment in the afternoon.

澳大利亚联储主席洛威将发表讲话,中国将发布工业产值、零售业销售额以及失业数据。欧洲方面,我们将获得法国CPI以及欧元区Flash GDP和贸易差额。美国将发布零售业销售额以及消费者情绪指数。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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