首页 / 商业理财 / 双语:美联储发布鸽派会议纪要,特斯拉势如破竹前来救场美股

双语:美联储发布鸽派会议纪要,特斯拉势如破竹前来救场美股


A week of calm ensued after the US/China trade talks were postponed last weekend. This led to the markets opening on Monday at around the levels seen at the close of the week, with the exception of Chinese markets surging at the open, purely on the “no news is good news” theory. Infact, Chinese stocks and currency enjoyed a solid week, as economic data continues to be supportive of  economic recovery resulting in the USD/CNY being sold aggressively, as the CNY surged and the US Dollar theme for the week was broadly lower.

本周较为平淡,多个市场周一开盘较上周并无变化,仅有中国市场高开,可能只是因为“没有消息就是好消息”的原因。

事实上,由于利好经济数据证明了经济正在逐步复苏,中国股市和人民币本周表现强劲,美元/人民币盘中下跌,人民币强势升值,美元本周则全线下跌。

It wasn’t all one way traffic for the US Dollar as after a heavy start to the week against most other currencies, there was a surge after the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) released their minutes of the late July meeting on Wednesday night. Very much against Trump's wishes, the FOMC remained cautious to their outlook, as the US struggles to deal with Covid-19. There was perhaps undue hope that they could be more optimistic, but that tone was not evident in the minutes. With the FOMC committee, now on break until September, expectation was that they announce the new strategy at that meeting, again the minutes did not reflect that this would be the case, with it now seeming more likely they perhaps rightly await the outcome of the US election in November.

尽管本周初美元兑大多数货币均贬值,但在美联储公开市场委员会周三晚发布了7月会议纪要后,美元有所反弹。美联储并没有“顺从”特朗普的意愿,考虑到新冠病毒对美国产生的影响,美联储继续对未来前景持谨慎态度。尽管人们此前预期听到美联储更加乐观的看法,但显然会议纪要中并没有体现出这一点。由于美联储公开市场委员会接下来进入休假期,直到9月前都不会再发声,人们原本也期待此次会议会宣布未来的新策略,然而纪要中同样也没有提到。看起来,美联储是在等待11月美国大选的结果。

Naturally, the magnitude of this election bearing significant event risks to the markets, with either the Tax heavy Biden or the unstable Trump bearing different risks, therefore this seems a perfectly viable and sensible plan, with Central Banks naturally being reluctant to release one plan before abruptly changing course.

这场选举对市场来说可能带来重大的事件风险,无论是主张增税的拜登,还是极其不稳定的特朗普,他们都代表了不同的风险。因此,作为中央银行,美联储不愿在过早透露它的计划是十分合理的。

In the US whilst the virus continues to cause issues in certain states the spread has not been further expansionary this week. Joe Biden was confirmed as candidate for the Democrats as expected and continues to lead in the polls, both through his own personal and party following and those keen on “anyone but Trump”. The stock markets continue to soar, even after the dovish FOMC minutes caused a wobble on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. As ever these dips merely created further buying opportunities, led by of course the same handful of names with Tesla being the standout performer. The stock hit an incredible high just over 2000, up from just below 400 on the year as the Nasdaq made a new high on Thursday night of 11,52,7 as markets grow tolerant to the fact we are on a gradual march higher into the election. But at what cost thereafter.

在美国,尽管新冠病毒的传播仍然不断引发问题,但病毒的传播在本周并没有继续扩大。正如预期的那样,乔·拜登顺利当选民主党总统候选人,并在民意调查中占据优势。他的领先一部分归功于支持他和他的政党的选民,另一部分归功于部分选民愿意选择“除了特朗普的任何人”。

即使美联储发布的会议纪要在周三晚和周四早晨掀起了市场的波浪,但这些下跌只是创造了买入机会,股市总体仍在上涨,包括特斯拉在内的表现出色的股票也拉动了市场。特斯拉的股价以惊人的速度上涨至2000美元,一年前,该股股价仍低于400美元。纳斯达克在周四晚创下新高,达到11527水平。市场已经接受了大选前将逐渐攀升的事实,但此后将会付出什么代价呢?

With the US Dollar on the back foot, the obvious “go to’s” were the Euro and the Pound, but with further lock downs ensuing across the Eurozone, warnings of slow economic recovery from senior German officials and poor PMI data the Euro struggled this week, the Pound is benefitting heavily from reserve purchases as it surged on the week to make a high at 1.3250 before slowing into the weekend.  The populism of the Pound wasn’t aided by the Brexit talks that resumed this week, but it wasn’t hurt, as no progress was made in the key topics of fishing rights and freight, these will likely remain the sticking point as the negotiations continue in the coming weeks.  The UK domestically continues to avoid the significant resurgence of the virus that is being seen across Europe, so despite the government, having learned from the  slow initial reaction to the virus, and now adopting a slower normalization process, is finally getting something right.

由于美元走弱,欧元和英镑显然应成为“宠儿”。但随着欧元区国家接连陷入封锁状态,德国高级官员警告称经济复苏的速度放缓,以及采购经理人指数数据不佳,欧元本周也并不好过。

英镑因此受益。本周英镑对美元汇率飙升至1.3250,虽然在临近周末时有所回落。尽管本周进行的“脱欧”谈判并不是导致英镑收到欢迎的主要原因,但至少没有“拖后腿”。“脱欧”谈判在捕鱼权和货运规定方面仍然没有进展,并且很可能是未来几周谈判中难以攻克的“症结所在”。

眼见欧洲已经在疫情下再次“沦陷”,英国做好充分准备避免新冠病毒的第二波来袭。英国政府此前由于对病毒反应缓慢而吃了教训,而如今恢复正常化的过程同样缓慢,却终于算是做对了。

 

The Week Ahead:

Monday:  A very quiet day with just data out of New Zealand with Retail Sales core and non-core and Chinese Leading Index data.

周一数据较少,只有新西兰核心和非核心零售销售额数据,以及中国领先指标。

 

Tuesday: First up is Japanese Core CPI. In the European session we get German GDP and Ifo business climate as well as UK CBI. In the US session we get Consumer Confidence data.

在日本发布核心CPI数据后,在欧洲时段,我们将得到德国GDP数据、IFO 景气指数以及英国CBI数据。美国时段,我们将得到消费者信心数据。

 

Wednesday: Australian Construction data kicks off the day with a very quiet European session. In the US session we get core and non-core durable goods.

澳大利亚建筑业数据最先发布,美国时段,我们将得到核心和非核心耐用品数据。

 

Thursday: Australian Private Capital Expenditure comes first. Again there is little in the way of meaningful data from Europe. In the US session Prelim GDP, Unemployment claims and probably most significantly Jerome Powell speaking at Jackson Hole, which could be pivotal for the week's trading.

澳大利亚私营企业资本支出发布之后,我们将获得美国国内生产总值的初值、失业申请数据,以及最重要的是,鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年会上讲话,对下周的市场交易来说至关重要。

 

Friday: German Gfk and import prices as well as French CPI , GDP and Consumer spending data from Europe comes first. In the afternoon session we get Canadian GDP, US Core PCE and Personal Spending data, before the Chicago PMI and UoM data. Again be mindful of announcements from the Jackson Hole symposium.

周五我们将得到德国GFK消费信心指数和进口价格,另外还有法国CPI,以及欧洲的GDP和消费者支出。下午时段,我们将得到加拿大GDP、美国核心个人消费支出以及个人消费数据,之后会得到芝加哥PMI和密歇根大学发布的数据。另外,要重点关注杰克逊·霍尔经济研讨会的消息。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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