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双语:美联储放宽通胀目标,安倍晋三辞职,全球股市有人欢喜有人愁



The week began with a “risk on” theme as President Trump announced that both the COVID-19 plasma treatment and the Astra Zeneca/ Oxford University vaccine would be fast tracked. Although these were not necessarily significant shifts and will not see any tangible results any time soon, global risk assets, such as stocks, took this as a positive as equity markets leapt higher.

随着美国总统特朗普宣布将为血浆疗法和阿斯利康与牛津大学共同研发中的新冠疫苗开绿灯,本周市场在“拥抱风险”的情绪下拉开序幕。尽管宣布这样的决定并不能左右如今的情况,并且在短期内看不到实质影响,但对于包括股票在内的全球风险资产来说,这当然是一则利好消息,市场随之上涨。

The standout move was the S&P 500 future rally that joined the cash index by hitting a new all-time high above the February 2020 peak. The cash index had made this statement the prior week and with both cash and futures markets at record levels and through the 3400 barriers, US equity indices surged higher through the week.

最引人关注的是标普500指数期货,创下2020年2月以来的新高。标普500指数在上周就大放异彩,无论是实时指数还是股指期货都刷新了历史高价,标普500史上首次突破了3400大关。美国股指在本周均有所上涨。

US-China trade talks were scheduled for mid-August, but cancelled at the eleventh hour, but Monday-Tuesday saw an announcement that a call had taken place between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. The sounding from both sides were positive, allaying market fears of a potential renewal of trade hostilities and again helping the broader “risk on” theme for share markets.

这周二,中国国务院副总理、中美全面经济对话中方牵头人刘鹤应约与美国贸易代表莱特希泽和财政部长姆努钦通话。双方同意创造条件和氛围,继续推动中美第一阶段经贸协议落实。这次通话打消了市场的忧虑,并进一步促进了股市的“拥抱风险”情绪。

The trade talks between the UK and the EU continue to be highlighted by impasse and disappointment, with both sides indicating that little progress has been made. This has not, however, had a negative impact on the Pound, which stays strong against the US Dollar and resilient against the Euro.

英国与欧盟间就“脱欧”方面的谈判仍然深陷令双方都感到沮丧的僵局中,双方都表示谈判进展甚微。然而,英镑却并未受到影响,英镑兑美元和英镑兑欧元均保持坚挺。

In the first half of the week, however, the Forex markets and in particular the US Dollar stayed subdued, caught within the near-term ranges that had been established throughout August. Currency markets were in a wait and see mode for the much-anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

与股市一片大好的形势不同,外汇市场则在前半星期陷入低迷,尤其是美元,一直在8月所处的区间中徘徊。在美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表演讲之前,外汇市场都一直处于观望状态。

Global financial markets certainly reacted to the Jerome Powell speech on Thursday, with the main focus on the Federal Reserve’s shift to Average Inflation Targeting. In short, this means that the Fed will not have a specific target for inflation, but an average target. This will allow for the inflation rate to run higher (than the previous 2% target), if inflation rates had been notably lower previously. The inference was that this would allow the Fed to target employment and recovery growth, meaning interest rates would be allowed to be left “lower for longer”. Equities rallied further, whilst the US Dollar broadly sold off, with GBPUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD hitting new multi-month levels.

鲍威尔讲话过后,全球金融市场都对此做出了反应,主要关注点在于美联储向“平均通胀目标”上的转变。简单说来,这意味着美联储将不会再因为通胀达到某个设定数字就出手调控,而是着眼于在一个长周期内的平均通胀率。如果通货膨胀率在此长周期的前半段尤其低,那么即使后半段通胀上涨超过此前设定的2%目标,因为平均数仍没达到2%,美联储将不会出手干预。据推测,美联储此举旨在将就业率和经济恢复增长作为主要目标,利率也可以在更长的时间里维持较低水平。股市因此消息继续上涨,美元被普遍抛售,英镑兑美元、美元对加元以及澳元兑美元均冲击数月高位。

The end of the week saw the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe taken ill and then on Friday announce that he would be standing down due to ill health. This had an immediate impact on markets, with the Nikkei 225 selling off and the Japanese Yen rallying, with a localised repatriation “risk off” move.

周五,日本首相安倍晋三宣布因病辞任。这一消息立刻对市场造成影响,日经225指数被抛售,日元上涨,日本本土则转变为“规避风险”模式。


The Week Ahead:


Monday:  

UK Bank Holiday observed, with UK financial markets closed.  From Asia we get Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Trade data and the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). In Europe, Germany releases Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. US side data is light.

英国公共假期休市。亚洲时段,我们将得到日本的工业产值和零售业贸易数据, 中国物流与采购联合会将发布采购经理人指数。欧洲方面,德国将发布消费者价格指数。来自美国的数据较少。

Tuesday: 

We get further Chinese PMI data with the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI from Markit. The Reserve Bank of Australia are also in action with their interest rate decision and statement. Through the day, Markit release European, UK and US Manufacturing PMI data, whilst the US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) also post their Manufacturing PMI. This will be punctuated by Eurozone CPI.

周二我们可以得到财新/Markit发布的制造业采购经理人指数。澳联储将发布利率决议以及生命。在一天中,Markit会先后发布欧洲、英国以及美国的制造业采购经理人指数。美国供应管理协会也会发布ISM制造业采购经理人指数。另外,欧元区CPI数据也会发布。

Wednesday: 

Australian post Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 and Germany releases Retails sales numbers for July. In the US we get the ADP Employment change data.

澳大利亚将发布第二季度GDP,德国将发布7月零售业数据。美国将发布ADP就业人数变化数据。

Thursday: 

Throughout the day, Markit post European, UK and US Services and Composite PMI data, whilst the US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) also released their Services and Composite PMI. Weekly US Jobless Claims are also posted.

Markit将先后发布来自欧洲、英国和美国的服务业PMI以及综合PMI;ISM将发布美国服务业PMI和综合PMI;另外我们还将得到美国周失业申请数据。

Friday: 

The end of the week begins with Australian Retails Sales numbers for July, and the always much-watched US Employment report, plus the Canadian Employment report.

先是澳大利亚发布的7月零售业销售额,接着是受关注度较高的美国就业报告,以及加拿大就业报告。

 

 


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