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双语:美股遭重挫后,反而更多投资者即将进场?


This week started as we had grown accustomed, with US stocks soaring led by the heavyweights again, as the S&P and in particular the Nasdaq continued to burst into fresh highs. The Nasdaq touched a high of 12,466 which was a staggering 87% up from the lows seen in the pandemic fueled crash seen earlier this year. Whilst it could be argued the trajectory of the move was orderly and steady, the concern of correction was moving from the back of our mind to the front.

本周一开始又是我们熟悉的节奏,美国股市在权重股的带动下继续上涨,标普指数以及纳斯达克均冲击新高。纳斯达克触及12466的高点,与今年早些时候因为新冠疫情而导致崩盘的低点相比实现了惊人的87%的增长。尽管美股的上涨轨迹是有序的、平稳发展的,然而我们仍然需要开始担忧价格修正的到来。

Therefore, whilst the move we saw on Thursday was of course a surprise, with the Nasdaq falling in the region of 5% on the day. The surprise was more around the driving factor for such a move. With little in the way of economic, political or trade related reasoning the markets seemed to freefall as short-term traders and algorithms kicked in and brought stocks down sharply. The big question will be around how do we react from here, recently we have certainly seen that any fall is immediately seen as a potential opportunity for fresh buyers to enter the market seeking value, and whilst a 5% daily fall in the Nasdaq is unquestionably a lot, in the scheme of an 87% move up it’s barely a blot on the landscape. Nevertheless, a strong close to the week and open next week will be required to regain the short-term confidence and the Non-farm payrolls data and Unemployment numbers could well support or derail this.

因此,尽管我们在周四的时候对纳斯达克一日之内下跌5%而感到意外,但惊讶更多是在于什么驱动了此次下跌。在没有经济、政治或贸易等相关影响的情况下,市场急速下跌,短线交易员和算法自动交易加剧了这一趋势。

那么如今最大的问题是,我们将对此如何反应?我们近期看到,每次市场下跌都成为了价值型投资者进入市场的机会。尽管纳斯达克单日下跌5%看上去无疑是一次很大的跌幅,然而与87%涨幅的数字相比,仍然瑕不掩瑜。然而,想让投资者重拾短期信心,仍然需要有本周收盘和下周开盘的强劲表现,另外非农就业数据和失业数据的好坏也将左右投资者的心态。

The other significant shift evident in the markets this week came in the ECB’s stance on the value of the Euro, with the single currency buoyed by the perceived strong aid package put in place by the Central Bank and a weaker US dollar the Euro was pushing the 1.2000 area against the dollar. With the actions of two ECB members speaking out in 2 days sighting concerns over the strong currency hampering Europe’s exports, they seemed to be in affect drawing a line in the sand verbally on the currencies strength, bringing EUR/USD back towards the bottom of the recent range, with strong technical support in the 1.1700-50 area. The fall in the currency did however breathe life back into the lagging European stock markets midweek, before they were dragged lower under the weight of global stocks.

本周市场的另一明显变化来自于欧洲央行对待欧元价值的立场发生改变,欧洲央行强有力的援助计划使得欧元得到大幅提振,再加上美元疲软的原因,欧元兑美元冲击1.2000水平。

两名欧洲央行成员在2天内先后发表讲话,称对强势欧元可能对欧洲出口造成影响而表示担忧。如此的发言过后,欧元兑美元重回近期价格区间,支撑阻力位落于1.1700-50区间。欧洲股市也因为欧元的下跌而短暂重焕生机,但很快就因全球股市大幅下跌而承压。

In the UK the Pound fell from 2.5 cents against the US dollar as the EU’s Barnier confirmed they are not even close to the UK in negotiations over the contentious fishing rights issue. The UK’s plans to double fishing quotas for UK ships could potentially lead to 30% of single block vessels.  This stumbling block will be pivotal to overall agreement on a trade and as such continuous lack of progress on this topic will weigh on the currency.

英国方面,英镑兑美元下跌2.5%。“脱欧”谈判方面,欧盟首席谈判代表巴尼尔表示,欧盟与英国在颇有争议的捕鱼权方面距离达成共识还有很远的路要走。英国方面希望本国渔民能够捕捞英国海域50%的水产,而巴尼尔却表示,这样的要求可能会导致欧盟捕鱼船被削减三分之一。关于捕鱼权的问题将继续成为“脱欧”贸易谈判的关键,如果双方谈话继续进展缓慢,将对英镑施加一定的压力。

In the US it appears Trump is getting clawing Biden’s lead back,  in a pattern not dissimilar to the last election. But concerns around Russian interference in that election are still not aiding this campaign. Whilst trade negotiation tensions were abating reports in the Global Times that China may be considering a reduction of holdings of US debt by $200 billion will not help the current Presidents plight, and this situation will have to be carefully monitored.

美国方面,特朗普正在努力赶超与拜登在民意调查方面的差距, 就像上次美国大选前发生的那样。据《环球时报》报道,中国可能会考虑逐渐将其持有的美国国债减少2000亿美元。这样的消息显然对现任美国总统特朗普来说并不美好,因此我们需要加倍关注相关事件发展。

The Week Ahead:

Monday 

First up is Chinese Trade Balance data. In the European session we get German Industrial Production and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. There will be no US data due to the bank holiday. 

首先我们将得到中国贸易差额数据,欧洲时段我们将得到德国工业产值和欧元区Sentix投资者信心指数。美国这天是假日,因此没有数据发布。

Tuesday 

Japanese GDP comes first before Australian Business Confidence data. In the European session we get French and German Trade Balance as well as Eurozone Employment and Revised GDP. 

日本GDP发布后,我们会得到澳大利亚商业信心数据。欧洲方面,我们将得到法国和德国贸易差额、欧元区就业情况以及修订GDP。

Wednesday

CPI and PPI inflation data from China comes early in the session. The main event is the interest rate statement from the Bank of Canada as well as the statement from the Central Bank. 

中国较早时候将发布CPI和PPI通胀数据。这天的主要事件是加拿大央行发布的利率决议以及声明。

Thursday - In the European Session its French and Italian Industrial Production. We get the latest update of interest rates from the ECB at 12.45pm with the statement from Christine Lagarde at 1.30pm, with US Weekly unemployment data coming at the same time. 

欧洲时段数据包括法国和意大利工业产值。12点45分时,欧洲央行将发布利率决议,欧洲央行行长拉加德将在下午1点半发表讲话。同时段,美国将发布周失业数据。

Friday

A raft of data from the UK starts the day, with Construction, GDP Industrial Production and Manufacturing data all being released. There will be breaking news from the Eurogroup meeting throughout the day. In the US session comes the CPI Inflation data. 

英国将发布包括建造业、GDP、工业产值和制造业数据等大量数据。周五,欧洲集团会议将不断有最新消息发布。美国时段,我们将得到CPI通胀数据。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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