首页 / 商业理财 / 双语:疫情再次席卷欧洲,金融市场仍在静候各国政府“放大招”

双语:疫情再次席卷欧洲,金融市场仍在静候各国政府“放大招”


This week has brought some consolidation to the markets. With the buoyant US markets giving back the gains on the year, even the tech heavy Nasdaq has had a subdued heavy week. Considering the growing headwinds of a surge in cases and mobility restrictions throughout Europe, the United Kingdom, and the US, there is an overriding nervousness in the price action. With the facts pointing to lower stocks the recent overwhelming fact that sell offs only wake value buyers of stock (particularly in FAANG stocks and the broader Tech sector) the impacts of the selling have been muted for now. But there feels little doubt we are on the cusp of a big move into the US election, but as yet the exact direction is trickier to define despite the logic saying it should be to the downside.

金融市场本周迎来盘整的一周。活跃的美国股市回吐了今年的部分盈利,即便是科技股为主的纳斯达克也经历了惨淡的一周。第二波疫情的来袭以及欧洲、英国和美国先后发布的封锁措施所带来的压倒性的紧张情绪尽数在价格变动中显现出来。最近发生的事都最终导致股票的走低,不争的事实是,抛售只会吸引更多的价值型投资者,尤其对于包括脸书、苹果、亚马逊、奈飞和谷歌在内的五大科技股以及更广范围内的整个科技行业。因此抛售所带来的影响已被减弱。

毋庸置疑的是,随着美国大选的逼近,我们将迎来一次巨大的市场变动。至于它的方向,尽管理论上应该是下行,但现在仍不能过早下定论。

In the US, all eyes were on the Federal Reserve Committee members as they appeared at scheduled events in the wake of their somewhat underwhelming performance at last week's rate setting meeting. The tone was much the same from Jerome Powell, as he took the approach that they have done all they can and passed it back over to the government to act with fiscal support. Whilst the Republicans and Democrats still continue to be at deadlock on the next aid package and that situation not looking likely to change ahead of the election, there are real concerns of how this will affect the US economy should we see a further surge in virus cases. Despite this the Stock market has held up relatively well, but any further negative news could start to make the longer-term investment community consider their options. The US Dollar was one of the better performing currencies this week as the markets sought safe-haven investment again with USD/JPY turning up from 104.00 to 105.50 and the Pound and Euro under pressure from the greenback.

美国方面,所有人的目光都关注在美联储成员身上。因为上周的利率决议会议让人略感失望,因此人们格外关注他们在这周活动行程中的讲话。各成员都与鲍威尔保持一致口径,那就是他们已经竭尽所能,并将焦点转移到美国政府的财政支持上。

关于接下来的援助计划,美国两党的商讨仍然陷入僵局,并且看起来,这种两党僵持的情况将继续持续到大选结束前。人们担忧,如果病例未来继续激增,美国经济将备受打击。然而,美股似乎并未受到太大的影响,但任何坏消息都有可能让长期投资者重新审视他们的选择。

由于市场寻求避险资产,美元本周表现良好,美元兑日元从104.00上涨至105.50。英镑和欧元感受到来自美元的压力。

In the UK we are seeing a significant surge in virus cases, which forced the government into a curfew of bars and restaurants at 10pm each night and encouraged those who could work from home, to do so. These measures were not perceived as strong enough, and with the addition of the underwhelming announcement of new employer aid via the furlough scheme announced by Rishi Sunak on Thursday the Pound ends the week around the 1.2700 area against the US Dollar unaided by again no positive steps towards Brexit agreement with the EU. For now whilst the depleted level offers a good medium to long term investment opportunity, in the short term it's hard to argue a case for buying the Pound, with the Government falling short of delivery of Covid positive action, business relief and trade agreement.

英国在本周出现病例激增的情况。英国政府对此作出反应,禁止酒吧和餐馆在晚上10点后营业,并鼓励有条件的的人尽量选择在家工作。然而,人们普遍认为这样的封锁措施并不够强力。周四,英国财政大臣苏纳克宣布了新的工作支持计划,用于接替10月底即将到期的工作保留计划。加之英国与欧盟间“脱欧”谈判并无积极进展,英镑兑美元本周临近收盘时为1.2700水平。

尽管英镑如今的低位提供了中长期投资机会,然而考虑到英政府在抗疫和谈判方面都表现较弱,我们很难找到一个短期买入英镑的理由。

In the Eurozone, the main stories this week have been raising cases and as such lockdowns. Cases in Germany, France and Italy and Spain are reverting to levels not seen since the lifting of lockdowns forcing towns, regions, and countries to reinforce restrictions to protect hospitals that are starting to come under pressure again. Naturally, there was an expectation of an autumnal increase in cases, but the recent increase does raise serious concerns with large towns in Spain like Madrid already in full lockdown. All eyes will be on the ECB for the guidance of financial support next week with Head Christine Lagarde scheduled to speak on Monday and Wednesday.

欧元区本周同样深受病例激增以及封锁措施的困扰。德国、法国、意大利和西班牙的病例增长水平均达到了解除封锁后的峰值,小到城镇,大到地区和国家层级,都推出了限制措施,从而缓解医院所面临的医疗资源紧张的压力。尽管随着秋季的到来,人们早已预料到病例增长,然而近日的激增仍然引起了强烈担忧,包括首都马德里在内的多个西班牙城市进入了全面封锁状态。

下周,所有目光都将聚焦在欧洲央行行长拉加德的身上,她将于下周一和周三发表讲话,宣布关于财政支持的指导意见。

 

The Week Ahead

 

Monday: Quiet day with a Chinese bank holiday. UK Nationwide House Prices are early in the session. The main event of the day is the ECB’s Lagarde at 2.45.

周一是中国的公共假期。早上发布的数据有英国房价指数。主要时间是欧洲央行行长拉加德在下午2:45的讲话。

 

Tuesday: In the European session we get CPI Inflation data from Germany and Spain before UK Mortgage Approvals and Net Lending data. In the US session is Goods Trade Balance, Consumer Confidence and Fed Speakers, Williams, Harker, Clarida and Quarles.

欧洲时段,我们将得到德国和西班牙的CPI通胀数据,接着发布的是英国房屋贷款批准数据和净贷款数据。美国方面将会发布商品贸易差额和消费者信心数据,美联储成员Williams、Harker、Clarida以及Quarles发表讲话。

 

Wednesday: Chinese PMI Manufacturing data is first up before German Import data and Retail Sales. From the UK we get GDP and Current Account data. At 8.30 we again hear from the ECB’s Lagarde.In the US session is ADP employment data and US and Canada’s GDP numbers as well as Chicago PMI and Home sales numbers

周三最先发布的是中国制造业PMI数据,接着是德国进口数据以及经常账户数据。8:30我们将再度听到拉加德的讲话。美国将发布ADP就业数据、芝加哥PMI数据以及房屋销售额,美国和加拿大将发布GDP数据。

 

Thursday: More PMI data this time from Eurozone Switzerland and the UK. In the US session we get PMI and ISM manufacturing data as well as weekly Unemployment data and Fed speakers Williams and Bowman.

欧元区国家、瑞士和英国将发布PMI数据。美国时段,我们将得到PMI、ISM制造业数据以及周失业数据,美联储成员Williams和Bowman将发表讲话。

 

Friday: Japanese Unemployment data comes early. In the US session its the big Unemployment data with Non-farm Payrolls, Average Earnings and the Unemployment Rate, before University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

最早发布的是日本失业数据。美国方面将发布非农就业数据、平均收入以及失业率数据,之后发布的是密歇根大学消费者情绪数据。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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