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警钟敲响!美国金融泡沫就快要爆炸了


We are living in exciting times. The Federal Reserve has created what is probably the largest and longest-lasting financial bubble in the history of the US. It doesn’t matter if frustrated traders continue to yell bearish sentences on why the market should collapse any time soon. The reality is that we could easily mention a thousand reasons, but the bubble continues to get grow.

我们正处于一个激动人心的时代。美联储已经创造了可能是美国历史上规模最大以及历时最长的金融泡沫。尽管失望的交易员持续持有市场随时都可能崩塌的看跌心态,然而事实是,泡沫还是继续在膨胀。


The central banks (i.e. Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and US Federal Reserve) have market participants “addicted” to “free” money, while savers (and middle-class millennials) have been struggling for more than a decade to simply accumulate enough wealth for a first house down payment. The domino effect is very simple: the cheaper and the easier it is to borrow,  the higher the demand for investments is ( i.e real estate, stocks, bonds…). Rents get higher, inflation spikes (thanks also to the trade negotiations) and wages are not catching up, meaning the social trap just becomes even tighter.

各个中央银行(像是日本银行、欧洲中央银行和美联储)已让市场参与者对接受“免费”的钱“上了瘾”,而储户和身处中产阶级的千禧一代在过去十多年里,即便是积累足够资金来支付首套房的首付都很困难。“多米诺骨牌效应”显而易见:借贷越便宜和容易,投资需求(例如房地产,股票,债券…)就越高。租金上涨,通货膨胀率飙升,工资却并没有赶上,这意味着一小部分人获利导致总体形势变差的“社会陷阱”变得更加严峻。

Now, we might believe that central banks have the situation under control, at the end of the day they are experts with decades of experience. So why do they keep stimulating the economy despite saying it isn't showing any sign of weakness in the near future? 

Despite that fact the market certainly seems to like it, corporates (especially those with an elevated amount of outstanding debt) are enjoying their free refinancing and instead of boosting their earnings-per-share (EPS) by producing better goods/services, implementing new pricing policies, increasing their sale volumes or organically acquiring market share, they either repurchase their own shares (making sure the stock price continues to rally) or they can extinguish their “expensive” outstanding debt by issuing new “cheaper” options. 

我们现在可能会认为,各国中央银行能够控制局势,毕竟他们是拥有几十年经验的专家。 那么为什么尽管他们说近期并未发现任何疲软迹象,却仍要持续刺激经济呢?

尽管市场确实看似喜欢这样,公司(尤其是那些未偿债款较高的公司)乐于这种没有成本的再融资,但是这也导致它们不再通过生产更好的商品或提供更好的服务、实施新的定价政策、增加销量或通过自然方式获取市场份额等方法来提高每股收益(EPS),而是通过要么回购自己的股票(为了确保股价继续上涨),要么发行新的“更便宜”的期权来消除其“昂贵”的未偿债务。

In doing this, they save tens of millions per quarter in interest expenses, lifting their net profit. If we also take into account the tax boost post Trump’s election…you do the maths!

通过这样做,这些公司每季度节省了数千万的利息支出,提高了它们的净利润,更别提特朗普承诺的当选后的税收减免刺激……一算便知!

We must also remember that high-level management typically receive stock options and cash incentives based on the “corporate profit” growth.  The charts below show how the S&P 500 has become 44% more expensive than 10 years ago (in terms of enterprise value vs operating profit), while the US GDP has grown by a more “moderate” 22% over the same period. How could we explain such a sharp growth, especially the last few months bounce back, if every “active” investor claims to be either short or underweight on stocks? Answer: ETFs, Passive Investments, Algo-Trading and more importantly Corporates shares buybacks ($1tn this year).

别忘了,高层管理人员获得的股票期权和现金奖励都取决于“企业利润”的增长。通过下面这个图表可以看出,S&P 500相比10年前贵了44%(就企业价值与运营利润而言),而美国GDP在同一时期却仅增长了22%。 如果每个“主动”投资者都声称卖空或减持股票,那么我们如何解释这种急剧增长,尤其是最近几个月的反弹? 答案是:增长来自交易所交易基金(ETF)、被动投资、算法交易,还有更重要的企业股票回购(今年达到10亿美元)。

 



The REPO market scandal (10x higher overnight rate in only few hours, came due to a sudden liquidity shock) , the German recession (historically lower consumer confidence and PMI), the endless Brexit (UK Parliament shut down recently declared unlawful)…all warning factors! 

回购协议市场丑闻(突然的流动性冲击导致隔夜利率仅在数小时内提高了10倍)、德国经济衰退(消费者信心和采购经理人指数均处于历史低位),以及无休止的英国“脱欧”(英国议会最近关闭被宣布为非法行为)…这些都是警告因素!

 

Monday周一:

  • NBS      China Manufacturing PMI (previous, 49.5)

    中国国家统计局制造业采购经理指数(之前为49.5)

  • UK      GDP (previous, 0.5%/1.8% QoQ/YoY)

    英国国内生产总值(GDP)(前值为环比增长0.5%、同比增长 1.8%)


Tuesday周二:

  • Canada      Manufacturing PMI (previous, 47.2)

    加拿大制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)(先前为47.2)

  • Italy Markit Manufacturing      PMI (previous, 48.7)

    意大利Markit 制造业 PMI(之前为48.7)

  • Germany Markit      Manufacturing PMI (previous, 43.5)

    德国Markit 制造业PMI(之前为43.5)

  • Canada      GDP (previous, 0.2%)

    加拿大GDP(前值为0.2%)

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI      (consensus/previous, 50.4/49.1)

    美国ISM制造业PMI(一致期望50.4,前值 49.1)

 

Wednesday周三:

  • UK Consumer PMI (previous, 45)50.4

    英国消费者PMI(前值为45)

  • US ADP      National Employment (consensus/previous, 153K/195K)

    美国ADP国民就业率(一致期望为153K,前值195K)

 

Thursday周四:

  • US ISM      Non-Manufactruing PMI (consensus/previous, 55.8/56.4)

    美国ISM非制造业PMI(一致期望为55.8,前值56.4)

  • UK Service PMI      (previous, 50.6)

    英国服务业PMI(前值50.6)

  • US All Car Sales (previous, 4.6mn units)

    美国全部汽车销量(前值为460万辆)

 

Friday周五:

  • Australia Retail Sales (previous, -0.1%)

    澳大利亚零售业销量(前值为-0.1%)

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls (consensus/previous, 162K/130K)

    美国非农就业数据(一致预期162K,前值130K)

  • US      Unemployment Rate (consensus/previous, 3.7%/3.7%)

    美国失业率(一致预期3.7%,前值3.7%)


Chart of the week每周图表


Quote of the week 本周语录

"You have stolen my dreams and my childhood...We are in the beginning of a mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and fairytales of economic growth. How dare you!” 

你夺走了我的梦想和童年,我们正处于大规模灭绝的开端,而在你口中的却只有钱和经济增长的童话。你何来这种胆量?”

——Greta Thunberg on the climate change effects at the UN Conference last week

——格丽塔·桑伯格在上周联合国会议上谈气候变化的影响


Fact of the week 本周事件


A brave trader from Mitsubishi Corp. has just been sacked after losing as much as $320 million. The trader, who was employed by Petro-Diamond Singapore Pte Ltd, a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation, incurred significant losses when a "premature" settlement of derivatives positions had to be closed out, according to his lawyer Joseph Chen. The losses are expected to be about 6% of Mitsubishi's projected profit for the fiscal year, although the right figure has still to be publicly announced.

日本三菱集团一位胆大的交易员在造成3200千万美元的损失后被开除。该交易员此前受雇于三菱集团旗下的石油-钻石新加坡公司(Petro-Diamond Singapore Pte Ltd)。其律师约瑟夫·陈称,当他不得不提前关闭衍生品交易仓位时造成了巨大损失。损失预计约三菱集团本财年预期收益的6%,但实际数额还需要等待公布。

 


Stefano Sciacca

Sciacca拥有专业的资产投资经验,曾就职于大型金融机构如伦敦证券交易所和高盛。现任职瑞麟资本的投资经理一职。Stefano在股票公开市场有非常深入的研究和丰富的知识。

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