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双语:英国二季度GDP低于预期,英镑如何挺过这关?


英国方面,已经到了需要思考我们是否在接近经济衰退的地步。上周五,英国GDP数据显示环比下跌0.2%,随着收益曲线反转,债券市场出现了方向性的转变。这种反转常常是经济开始进入衰退的信号。虽然看似英国有一定的可能性必然会走向这样的命运,但“脱欧”将如何发展仍然是个问号。

In the UK the time has come to question whether we are slipping towards a recession. Last fridays release of UK GDP showed a slip by 0.2% quarter on quarter, this brought a shift in the bond market as the yield curve inverted. This inversion can often be seen as a sign an economy is slipping towards recession and whilst there seems to be a degree of inevitability this is the fate for the UK, there is a question over which side of Brexit will it fall.

这周英国新首相仍然没有带来多少进展,我们看到约翰逊所做的只是承诺政府支出,像军队、监狱和卫生健康服务之类的部门被承诺将获得额外支出。他的这种做法让许多人认为他是在为首相选举做准备,希望以此来获取民意支持。上周,英国和欧盟没有进行有意义的对话,对于脱欧的忧虑继续增长。然而也有传闻称,约翰逊这周可能会与爱尔兰总理里奥·沃尔德卡进行座谈,来讨论有争议的边境问题

It was another week of muted progress from the new UK Prime Minister as all we saw Boris pledge spending, areas such as forces, prison and the health services were given promises of additional spending, a trait which leads many to believe the PM is preparing for an election and attempting to increase populism.  With another week passing where no meaningful discussion has been held with the European Union concerns are growing.  It is however rumoured that Boris could sit down with Irish Premier Leo Varadkar this week to discuss the contentious border issue.



随着G7会议倒计时不到2周的时间,普遍的希望是能达成一项令多方都欣然同意的计划,然而随着英镑在严重的抛售压力之下贬值,市场反映出——这种达成计划的希望可能过于渺茫。虽然我们在过去几周已经习惯了市场抛售英镑,随着“无协议脱欧”的可能性越来越真实,抛售的速度变得更快。再加上上周GDP数据非常差,随着预测者尝试着预测市场对于“无协议脱欧”的最终结果准备如何,英镑兑美元试探了重要心理价位。

With the G7 looming in just 2 weeks’ time the hope is that there is a cohesive and agreeable plan, but the markets are reflecting the potential that there may not be such a plan as the Pound has fallen under heavy selling pressure. Whilst we have become used to markets selling the pound in the last few weeks the pace has intensified as the hard reality of a no-deal Brexit looms. Coupled with the poor GDP data last week the pound tests the big psychological barrier as forecasters try and predict how positioned the market is for a no-deal eventuality.

欧元集团主席容克在周末警告,在狼狈的“无协议脱欧”局面下,英国会比它预想的受创更重。容克还表示,欧盟对于爱尔兰边界问题不会让步。虽然英国议会仍处于夏季休假期间,有传言称,议会成员们在谋划阻止“无协议脱欧”,并在“脱欧”最后期限之前推进大选,因为他们知道约翰逊希望在最后期限之后进行大选。

There were warnings from the EU’s Juncker  over the weekend that the UK will be harder hit from an ugly divorce than it is preparing for and that they remain immovable on the Irish backstop. Whilst Parliament remains on summer recess there are talks that MP’s are plotting to block the no-deal option and are pushing for an election ahead of the deadline, knowing Boris’s preference to be post deadline.

美国方面,这个交易周由中国的情况主导。中国对特朗普两周前宣布增加10%关税的决定采取了行动。特朗普当时做出如此举动似乎是为了达成两个目的。他不仅希望在与中国的贸易谈判中占据上风;同时,在降息速度不及总统期望之后,他又公然抨击他自己国家的作出利率决定的货币政策委员会。

In the US the trading week was dominated by developments from China where they took the strep of reacting to additional 10% tariffs ordered by Trump 2 weeks ago.  Trump's actions at the time seemed to serve a dual purpose as he sought to gain the upper hand in the trade negotiations whilst taking a blatant swipe at his own monetary policy rate-setting committee the FOMC after their failure to cut rates at the pace the President desired. 

鉴于这些最近的进展,特朗普的怒气似乎更集中在自己的中央银行身上,他身边的核心团队继续威胁称他们将“采取行动”来使美元贬值。然而,被他授予能力来行使这种权利的团队却不会同意这么做。杰罗米·鲍威尔的美联储公开市场委员会希望关注货币政策本身的原则,而并不支持大幅的降息。

In light of these recent developments, Trump's anger seems more directed at his Central Bank as his inner circle continue to threaten they will “act” to devalue the US Dollar, however, the team he has given the power to do so would disagree. Jerome Powell’ FOMC committee wants to focus on the job in hand focussing on monetary policy which in isolation does not support aggressive rate-cutting.

然而,由于特朗普的行动,我们有70%的可能在9月看到一次降息,12月再次降息。这周所有目光都继续集中在中国和美国,中国继续提高每天可接受的汇率水平,但必须考虑到他们不太可能允许汇率变动太大,因为他们会担心人民币贬值带来的资本外逃。

However, due to Trump’s actions, there is heightening probability we see a rate cut in September at 70% chance then again in December. This week all eyes will again remain on China and the US, with China continuing to move the tolerance level up on a daily basis, but it must be considered they are unlikely to allow it to go too far fearing an exodus of investment fearful of devaluation.

欧元区方面,升级的贸易压力让欧元区成员国处境更加艰难。特朗普几乎每天都就货币操纵来攻击中国和欧元区,这或许是美国将对欧洲汽车提高关税的信号,这对于已经疲软、看似处在衰退边缘的德国来说是雪上加霜。欧元的升值是给上周的市场带来一些意外的。全球贸易问题升级时,投资者寻找从风险更大的货币中分散出投资的机会,因此欧元开始变成避险货币。在过去,投资者持有较少的欧元。尽管有对于德国经济健康、“脱欧”和意大利政治不稳定性的忧虑,但看到投资者对欧元抱有如此信心还是非常有趣的事情。

In the Eurozone, the escalating trade tensions heighten the struggles of the Eurozone member countries. With Trump almost daily attacking China and the Eurozone over currency manipulation, it is felt that the chances of the US increasing tariffs on European Autos have increased which will be bad news for the already vulnerable Germany which is seen to be on the cusp of recession already.  One slight anomaly in the markets last week was the surge in Euro buying, it's becoming apparent that the Euro is becoming a safe haven currency when global trade issues escalate as investors look to diversify from riskier currencies. Historically investors have held lower reserves of Euros but despite concerns over the health of the economy in Germany, Brexit and political instability in Italy it is interesting to see such faith in the Euro.


 

The Week Ahead:

周一——周一可得到的数据较少,值得关注的消息只有澳大利亚储备银行的助理主席肯特的发言。

Monday -  A very quiet start to the week with the only notable release being from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Kent.

周二——首先是澳大利亚商业信心数据,然后是德国消费者价格指数。早上9点半我们会得到英国在就业数据以及平均收入数据。欧洲经济研究中心的德国经济信心数据将于早上10点公布。美国方面,我们将得到美国消费者价格指数(通胀数据)。

Tuesday - First up is Australian Business Confidence Data before German CPI. At 9.30am we get Employment data as well as Average earnings Data.  Germa Zew Economic Sentiment data comes at 10 am. In the US session, we get CPI inflation data from the US.

周三——澳洲早盘时段,我们将得到消费者情绪和工资数据。早上9点半,我们将得到英国通胀数据,预期1.9%,低于2.0%的基准水平。上午我们会得到欧元区GDP数据,市场对此预期是看到放缓迹象。美国方面,我们将得到美国进口价格数据。

Wednesday - In the early Australian session we get Consumer Sentiment and Wage data.  At 9.30 we get the UK inflation data, which is forecast to show a slight fall below the 2% benchmark to 1.9%. In midmorning, we get the Eurozone GDP data where the market awaits hints of a  slowdown in the bloc. In the US session, we get US Import price data.

周四——我们首先会获得澳洲就业和失业数据。由于这天是大部分欧洲国家的法定假期,我们仅会获取到英国零售业销售额,预期是从上个月1%降到-0.3%。下午我们还将得到美国零售业销售额以及费城联储制造业指数。

Thursday - The day starts in Australia with Employment and Unemployment data. With national holidays across Europe, the session is quiet aside from UK Retail sales where a contraction from the 1% seen last month is expected to -0.3%. In the afternoon we also get Retail sales from the US as well as Philly Fed

周五——上午我们将得到欧元区贸易收支数据。美国方面,将有建筑许可数和新屋开工数。下午3点将有密西根大学消费者情绪和通胀期望数据发布。

Friday -  In the morning we get Eurozone Trade Balance.In the US Session, we get Building Permits and Housing starts. At 3 pm its the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectation data.


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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