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脱欧悬念未定,市场乐观情绪却丝毫未减?


Whilst Brexit has grabbed every headline in the UK and Europe for the last few months last week with the eyes of the world looking in as it appears, we are on the cusp of a deal as has consistently been the case the ball was dropped by the Government. As optimism swept the markets last week as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union finally came to an agreement on a deal the Pound surged touching almost 1.3000 against the US Dollar as it was looking like Johnson may have the required votes to pass his deal through Parliament.

过去的几个月里,“脱欧”成为英国和欧洲所有媒体的头条新闻。上周全世界都在关注着“脱欧”的进展,但看似马上就要达成的协议,再一次因为未达到期待而落空。上周,随着乐观情绪席卷市场,英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊和欧盟终于达成了一份协议,英镑兑美元汇率飙升至近1.3000。看上去,约翰逊可能会获得足够多的选票来使议会通过这项协议。

 

However, there remained criticism over the content within the deal and the manner in which it was delivered. When Johnson and EU Chief Negotiator Michael Barnier had announced the deal last week, it was directly mentioned that the deal was agreeable to Northern Ireland and the DUP, but as was later proved, this was certainly not the case as they publicly stated.  As opposition party members and indeed members of his own cabinet pointed out this deal was no better than the one agreed by former PM Theresa May and fears grew that Johnson was trying to strongarm a poor agreement through the house using the threat of its this deal or no-deal. 

然而,协议的内容及达成方式受到质疑。约翰逊和欧盟首席谈判代表迈克尔·巴尼尔上周宣布协议时直接提到,北爱尔兰和民主统一党都可以接受这项协议,但是,事实并非他们公开声明的那样。包括约翰逊自己的内阁成员在内的反对派指出,这笔交易并不比前首相特蕾莎·梅所达成的协议更好,而且人们越来越担心,约翰逊想要通过要么同意这项协议要么就“无协议脱欧”的强硬手段,迫使英国议会接受这项不好的协议。

 

As Parliament sat on Saturday for the first time since the Falklands war all focus on independent and expelled party members to see which way they would vote, with Johnson requiring most of these votes to pass the deal unable to rely on the support from the DUP.  In a late twist, the inclusion of a vote designed by Sir Oliver Letwin took first priority for Saturday. This vote was to secure an extension on Brexit for a further 3 months to allow formal negotiation and analysis on any deal Johnson negotiates with the EU thus putting the brakes on the charge towards the current deal and ensuring that lawfully the PM had to adhere to the Benn Act and formally request a 3 month extension. 

上周六英国议员齐聚议会,这是自“福克兰群岛战争”以来英国议会第一次在周六开会。所有人的目光都集中在独立议员和被开除党籍的议员身上,他们的投票选择备注关注,因为约翰逊已不能再依赖北爱尔兰民主统一党的支持,而需要大多数投票来使协议通过。奥利弗·莱特温爵士发起了一次扭转了局势的投票,他的投票确保了英国“脱欧”时限能再延长3个月,让英国议会有足够的时间对约翰逊的协议进行正式协商和分析,从而不必急于向现在这份协议“冲刺”,并确保首相必须依法遵守《班恩法案》,向欧盟正式要求延长“脱欧”期限3个月。

 

Whilst much has been made of the manner in which Johnson requested the extension with him failing to sign the letter and adding an additional letter effectively saying that this isn’t his idea and they made him do it, the fact is that the letter has been written and we now await a reply from the EU, as has been typical Macron the French Leader was quick to state that the UK should just get on with voting without an extension. This of course could be an eventuality as well as permitting the UK the 3 month extension allowing it to end earlier if agreement is reached, alternatively as a German Minister suggested give the UK a longer extension whereby Johnsons deal is put to the public to vote in a referendum. Whilst many expect to hear from the EU in reply this week, they next sit on the 28th so it remains possible we do not hear till that point. 

尽管约翰逊要求了延期,但他并未在信上签字,并附加了另一封信表明这不是他的主意,而是议会成员迫使他这么做的。既然信已发出,那么我们现在就可以等待欧盟的答复。法国总统马克龙不出意外地马上表示,英国应该按照不能延期的情况继续投票。当然这是最终结果之一;另一种可能是允许英国延长3个月,并在协议达成时提前结束延期;或者,像一位德国的部长建议的那样,给英国为时更长的延期,让约翰逊可以发起全民公投,对是否通过协议进行表决。尽管人们期待在本周得到欧盟的回复,但在10月28日的欧盟下次座谈前,我们有可能不会听到回音。

 

Having taken the meaningful vote on the deal on Saturday after the extension votes derailed proceedings it's likely that Johnson represents his deal either on Monday or Tuesday this week. Yesterday in a TV interview, Jacob Rees Mogg appeared confident that they will obtain enough votes to pass the deal, a claim the markets seem to be agreeing with. Whilst there was a drop in the value of the Pound at the Asian open on Sunday night ending the Pounds wave of appreciation, the dip for now has been relatively shallow staying above the 1.2900 level, bearing in mind we were down at 1.2200 in September optimism in the markets persist as dips seem to be favourably bought with investors talking of one year forecasts of 1.35-40 outlooks for 1 year timeframes if a deal is reached and with the MPC having to hike rates to control inflation in the UK, it may not be such a longshot as it seems. 

在周六的投票“生变”后,约翰逊很有可能在这周一或周二再次提出就他的协议进行投票。在昨天的电视采访中,雅各布·里斯·莫格似乎对获得足够的选票来通过协议表现得十分自信,市场反应也表现出赞同。尽管周日晚亚洲开盘时英镑下跌,让英镑的升值浪潮暂告一段落,但目前的跌幅并不大,英镑兑美元仍然高于1.2900水平。回顾9月份,英镑兑美元仅为1.2200。市场持续的乐观情绪似乎让投资者逢低买盘,因为投资者预测如果协议通过,汇率一年内可达到1.35-1.40,考虑到货币政策委员会还可能需要通过加息以控制英国的通货膨胀,汇率达到预期可能不需要太久。

 

So another huge week for the UK and Eurozone, and whilst it may seem the Eurozone is holding all of the cards it can't be forgotten that they need a deal as much as the UK, the EU is experiencing less healthy times with slowing growth and now additional tariffs to deal with. All eyes will be on the negotiations this week and expectations remain for high volatility.

因此,对于英国和欧元区而言,这周又是重要的一周。尽管欧元区似乎掌握着话语权,但我们不能忘记他们与英国一样需要通过协议。欧盟经济情绪不佳,增长放缓,现在还有额外的关税问题要处理。所有人的目光都将集中在本周的谈判上,这周动荡仍将持续。

 

The Stock markets are continuing their positive stretch with the FTSE, DAX, S&P 500 and DOW Jones all enjoying positive weeks as earnings season has certainly not disappointed so far with JP Morgan and Netflix being two of the stronger performers so far. Last week brought further positive voices from both the US and China teams as the phased approach of the negotiations seems to be working well at this early stage, with both countries financial health currently suffering at this moment in time the fact that harmonious negotiation is in everyone's interest with ‘substantial progress’ being made currently. 

股市表现积极,英国富时、德国DAX、标普500和道·琼斯指数继续保持涨势,财报季目前让人满意,JP Morgan和Netflix是迄今为止表现最好的两个公司。上周,美国和中国的贸易谈判取得了进一步积极的进展,因为阶段性谈判的方式似乎在现在这个早期阶段行之有效,目前两国的经济状况都在下滑,和谐谈判对于双方都有利,当前正在取得“实质性进展”。

 

The Week Ahead:

本周展望:


Monday - As all eyes fall on Brexit progress there is little in the way of meaningful data from the global markets. Only the Canadian election results expected in the US session are noteworthy. 

周一-所有目光都集中在“脱欧”进展上。除美洲时区加拿大预期选举结果以外,全球市场并没有多少有意义的数据。

 

Tuesday - First up from the UK comes Public Sector Net Borrowing and BBI Industrial orders. In the US session we get Canadian Core and Non-core Retail Sales. We also get US Existing Home Sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index as well as the Bank of Canada Business Outlook survey. Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Kent Speaks. 

周二-首先是英国的公共部门净借贷和BBI工业订单。美国方面,我们将得到加拿大核心和非核心零售业销量。我们也将得到美国现屋销售量和里士满制造业指数,还有加拿大央行业务展望调查。夜间将有来自澳大利亚储备银行行长肯特的发言。

 

Wednesday -  Japanese inflation data is first up before Canadian Wholesale Sales and Eurozone Consumer Confidence. In the evening we get Australian Manufacturing and Services Flash PMI’s

周三-首先是日本通胀数据,然后是加拿大批发销售和欧元区消费者信心指数的数据。晚上我们将得到澳大利亚制造业和服务业Flash采购经理人指数(PMI)。

 

Thursday - The biggest data day of the week with the focus on the Eurozone. First comes French German and collective Eurozone PMI’s . At lunchtime comes the ECB interest rate decision where all eyes will be on Draghi’s press conference at 1.30pm. At the same time, we receive the Core and Non-core US Durable Goods. 

周四-本周数据最多的一天,最主要的是欧元区。首先是法国、德国和欧元区整体PMI,中午将有欧洲央行利率的决定,所有目光都将集中在德拉吉下午1:30的新闻发布会上。同时,我们将得到核心和非核心美国耐用品销售额。

 

Friday - A quite close to the week with German GFK and IFO in the morning session before University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data

周五-本周最后一天数据较少,早盘时段有德国GFK消费者景气数据和IFO商业景气数据,之后是密歇根大学消费者信心指数和通货膨胀预期。

 


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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