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股市追踪:非农数据不及预期,内忧外患下美股达到历史巅峰


The equity market seemed unstoppable despite the very slight price correction that took place during the Christmas period. 2020 has definitely not started in the best way given what is happening in Australia (almost half a billion of living creatures died due to the bushfire) and the quickly escalated conflict between the US and Iran, started from the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani assassination through US drones. A Ukraine Airlines airplane has also crashed following its take-off from Tehran airport (some believe it was destroyed by an Iranian missile, some speak of a coincidence).

股市的上涨如今已势不可挡,即便圣诞假期的价格略微调整也未能扭转趋势。2020年开局不利,澳大利亚发生火灾,将近五亿的生物在这次丛林火灾中死亡;美国无人机袭击暗杀了伊朗将军苏莱曼尼使得美国与伊朗之间的冲突迅速升级;乌克兰航空公司的飞机从德黑兰机场起飞后坠毁,有人认为这架飞机是被伊朗的导弹摧毁的,也有人认为是巧合。

Back to our market analysis, equities have experienced a strong rebound that led the S&P 500 to reach the historical highest level of 3288 points last Wednesday. The US stocks index has now the highest ever valuation on an EV/EBIT basis and the highest since the Dotcom bubble PE multiple, meaning that has never be as expensive as now (see below our “Chart of the week”).

回到我们的市场分析,股票出现了强劲的反弹,标普500指数在上周三达到3288点的历史最高水平。从企业估值倍数(EV / EBIT)的角度来看,美国股票指数现在位于有史以来最高估值,也有着自互联网泡沫之后最高市盈率,这意味着,股票从未像现在这样昂贵(请参阅下面的本周图表)。

On a positive note, Donald Trump confirmed the Phase One trade deal will likely be signed in a matter of few days, maybe even next week (although no confirmation arrived from China). General sentiment seems to recover after one of the least volatile years I can remember.

积极的方面是,特朗普证实了中美双方可能会在几天之内,或者甚至可能在下周签署第一阶段贸易协议(尽管没有来自中国的确认)。在经历了我印象里波动性最小的一年后,总体情绪似乎有所恢复。

Investment Grade bonds and Gold have also rallied due to rising uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil. On Friday the infamous market moving Non-Farm Payrolls suggested a weaker than expected job market in the US with “only” 145K jobs added in December and an unemployment rate of 3.5%. Average Hourly Earnings also decelerated to 2.9% compared to the last release of 3.1%. A focal point was the manufacturing payrolls that again confirmed the US currently does not have a strong manufacturing sector as the payrolls declined by 12K (vs +58K in Nov).

由于不确定性上升和地缘政治骚动,投资级别债券和黄金也随之上涨。周五,驱动市场的非农就业数据发布,美国就业表现弱于预期,12月仅增加了14.5万个工作,失业率为3.5%。平均小时收入也从上个月的3.1%下降至2.9%。作为焦点数据的制造业就业人数下降了12K11月份为+58K),这再次证实了美国目前的制造业的式微。

We believe the Volatility Index (VIX) is close to the historical minimum point, Gold and the 10Y US Treasuries currently yielding 1.84% have room to grow and definitely offer potential upside although a lot will depend on the Ukrainian plane crash investigation and any further trade negotiation development in the coming week.

我们认为波动率指数已接近历史最低点,黄金和目前收益率为1.84%的10年期美国国债仍有增长空间,尽管这在很大程度上将取决于乌克兰的飞机失事调查和未来几天任何进一步的贸易谈判进展。

Next week our macro spotlight will be on?

下周宏观焦点

Monday: 星期一

Balance of trade – UK 贸易差额-英国

GDP – UK 国内生产总值(GDP – UK

Consumer Inflation Expectations - US 消费者通胀预期-美国

Tuesday: 星期二

Balance of trade – China 贸易差额中国

Inflation rate – US 通货膨胀率美国

Redbook – US 红皮书美国

Wednesday: 星期三:

GDP – Germany GDP –德国

Inflation - UK 通货膨胀率-英国

Thursday: 星期四:

Inflation – Germany 通货膨胀德国

Retail Sales – US 零售业销量美国

Friday: 星期五:

GDP – China GDP –中国

Retail Sales – UK 零售业销量-英国

Inflation - Eurozone 通货膨胀-欧元区

Chart of the week 本周图表

Fact of the week 本周事件

President Donald Trump said the Phase One trade deal might be signed as soon as next 15th of January or “Shortly Thereafter”.

美国总统特朗普称,可能会在115日或之后不久签署第一阶段贸易协议。

Quote of the week 本周语录

"2019 was the worst year on record and the first year to show an overall decline in retail sales."——Helen Dickinson, BRC, CEO UK

“ 2019年是有记录以来最糟糕的一年,也是首次零售业销量全面下降的一年。”——英国零售商协会首席执行官海伦·狄金森 

Stefano Sciacca

Sciacca拥有专业的资产投资经验,曾就职于大型金融机构如伦敦证券交易所和高盛。现任职瑞麟资本的投资经理一职。Stefano在股票公开市场有非常深入的研究和丰富的知识。

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